The export growth target of 12% is quite challenging in the context of a market with many risks, requiring businesses to diversify their markets.

The 2025 export target is full of challenges

Import and export in the first month of 2025 reached only over 63 billion USD, decreasing both export and import, making the export growth target for the whole year of 2025 challenging.

In 2025, the target is to increase the export turnover of goods by 10-12% compared to 2024.

According to the General Department of Customs, in January 2025, goods exports reached only 33.2 billion USD, down 6.6% compared to the previous month and down 4% compared to the same period last year. On the contrary, goods imports in January 2025 reached more than 30 billion USD, down 14.1% compared to the previous month and down 2.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Thus, in the first month of the year, Vietnam had a trade surplus of more than 3 billion USD.

The reason why import and export turnover in January decreased compared to the same period last year is because the month included the Lunar New Year holiday of At Ty 2025, while the Lunar New Year holiday last year fell in February 2024.

Talking to reporters of the Industry and Trade Newspaper, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh - economic expert - said that export orders by the end of November 2024 will decrease compared to the end of November 2023. This is a concern.

Diversify markets to avoid trade "shocks"

In 2024, the total import-export turnover of the whole country will be 786 billion USD, an increase of 15.4%. Of which, exports will reach nearly 406 billion USD, an increase of 14.3%. In 2025, the industry and trade sector aims for an export turnover of 12% compared to last year.

The good news is that since the beginning of the year, the number of orders for wood, textile, footwear, etc. from key export markets has increased, which is a positive signal for Vietnam's export activities to reach the target. However, the condition is that Vietnamese goods must meet the requirements of the export market.

As a business in the wood processing and export industry, Mr. Trinh Duc Kien - Deputy Director of Ke Go Company Limited - said that the business has orders until the end of the first quarter of 2025. After the Lunar New Year, some customers from the US and EU markets have contacted to discuss the issue, however, from the stage of offering to closing the deal depends on many factors, including whether the business can meet the customer's requirements or not.

Looking at it from a more positive perspective, many opinions say that Vietnam is one of the 20 most open economies in the world. Therefore, when participating in most Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with many countries and economies in the world, this will be a condition for us to respond quickly, maintain the growth rate in the face of the possibility of a global trade war.

Of which, 17 FTAs ​​are creating a huge competitive advantage for Vietnamese goods to access over 60 global markets, leveraging export growth. More importantly, the deep roots of Vietnamese goods as well as adaptability to market fluctuations.

As in the agricultural sector, with only 7 FTAs ​​between Vietnam and countries in the region, more than 40 processed agricultural products of Dong Giao Food Export Joint Stock Company have reached 25 markets.

Mr. Nguyen Huu Hieu - Export Sales Director - Dong Giao Food Export Joint Stock Company - informed that each market has different tastes and characteristics. While agricultural products are seasonal, in addition to meeting quality requirements, businesses must calculate to ensure enough year-round output to meet customer requirements.

For wood industry enterprises, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Lam - CEO of Lam Viet Joint Stock Company - said that the company's annual export revenue of wood and furniture is about 30 million USD. Currently, Lam Viet's products are being exported focusing on 3 main markets: the United States, the EU and the United Kingdom. To achieve this result, the enterprise has met the high standards of the market, from tracing the origin of raw materials, as well as meeting green and sustainable standards... In the context of many fluctuations in the market, the enterprise is also trying to be more flexible to find more orders and customers.

To continue to maintain its export position, Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh said that, in addition to expanding the search for export markets, first of all with the 17 FTAs ​​that Vietnam has signed with partners, enterprises need to take full advantage to increase export value, as well as expand to other countries, in order to disperse the amount of export investment, reduce too much dependence on one country, thereby avoiding "shocks" when there are changes in trade policy.

In addition, Associate Professor, Dr. Dinh Trong Thinh also recommended that the authorities find solutions to increase the amount of imported goods from the US, especially machinery, equipment, and modern technology. From there, changing the capacity of domestic production, helping to increase labor productivity as well as creating sustainable growth in the coming time.

“Vietnam can also consider increasing imports of consumer goods, including aircraft and civil vehicles... to balance the trade balance with this partner,” said Mr. Dinh Trong Thinh.

In the recently released Global Trade Outlook Update, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has raised its growth forecast for world merchandise trade in 2025 to 3.3%, up 0.3% from the previous forecast. Growth opportunities are still available for countries with the largest trade scale in the world such as Vietnam.With the world's geopolitical developments continuing to be complex and unpredictable, many uncertain factors pose great opportunities for exports along with challenges requiring the need to promote production improvements in Vietnam's key export industries this year.

Source: Cong Thuong Newspaper