While prices appear stable at present, the tilapia and pangasius markets are still facing a lot of uncertainty. Supply fluctuations, tariff uncertainty, and demand fluctuations are creating an unpredictable picture for stakeholders. With limited purchasing in the coming months due to the holiday season and logistical challenges, many are in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting the latest updates on tariff policies and raw material supply.

The global tilapia and pangasius markets are in turmoil, with concerns about upcoming tariff changes mounting. Despite speculation about potential “panic buying” ahead of new tariffs coming into effect in the coming months, market movements have been fairly limited.

Tilapia market: a delicate balance

The U.S. tilapia market, especially from China, is currently in a cautious mood. Wholesale tilapia prices have stabilized somewhat, in part due to pre-holiday preparations. However, supply issues remain unresolved, and tariff uncertainty continues to put upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and Lent has kept trading activity quiet, with many buyers hoarding. Some importers are expected to only make small shipments in February, as processing plants return to operations after the holidays.

In addition, a shortage of smaller sizes (2-5 oz) is creating problems for importers. Farmers are now focusing on producing larger fish to increase profits, reducing supply at retail. Regional supply conditions remain tight, particularly in Hainan, where recovery efforts from last fall’s typhoon are ongoing. Guangdong has better but still unstable supplies.

A key factor influencing tilapia prices is the possibility of new tariffs. Despite rumors of “panic buying,” the market has not yet responded strongly, and deliveries are also facing difficulties due to long shipping times. However, if tariffs are increased, this could push tilapia prices even higher, although they have been trending steady for now.

Pangasius Market: Cautious and Volatile

The pangasius market in the United States remains subdued. While Vietnamese pangasius producers are hopeful of rising prices, weak global demand and regulatory hurdles such as anti-dumping laws are still having a strong impact. Supply fluctuations, especially changes by large companies such as Vinh Hoan, have made the market situation unpredictable.

Some farms may be reducing production in anticipation of raw material shortages in the next 4-6 months. This could lead to price increases, but the final decision will depend on demand, especially the impact of upcoming tariff decisions. Tariffs continue to be a concern for both tilapia and pangasius.

Many US policymakers view tariffs as a direct source of revenue, making it possible to raise duties on imports from China and Vietnam – two countries with large trade deficits with the US. Tariff enforcement is also not straightforward, as poorly monitored measures can distort markets, creating opportunities for dishonest importers to undermine legitimate trade.

Source: VASEP