If the current momentum continues, Vietnam’s total import–export turnover in 2025 could reach an unprecedented USD 900 billion, marking a historic milestone for the country’s trade performance.

Three Consecutive Months Above USD 80 Billion

According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s total import–export value in September 2025 reached USD 82.49 billion. Exports alone brought in USD 42.67 billion, a slight 1.7% decline from the previous month but still a 24.77% increase year-on-year, maintaining an impressive level above USD 40 billion per month.

Ten export product groups recorded turnover exceeding USD 1 billion, led by computers, electronics, and components with USD 10.59 billion (up 4.3% month-on-month), followed by machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts with USD 5.6 billion (up 8.1%), and phones and accessories with USD 5.4 billion (down 5.6%).

Other key export categories included textiles (USD 3.26 billion, down 15.6%), footwear (USD 1.7 billion, down 14.4%), vehicles and parts (USD 1.38 billion, down 6.7%), wood and wood products (USD 1.36 billion, down 6.9%), fruits and vegetables (USD 1.31 billion, up 38%), toys and sports equipment (USD 1.06 billion, down 1.5%), and seafood (USD 1.01 billion, down 5.6%).

On the import side, Vietnam recorded USD 39.82 billion in September, a modest 0.4% increase month-on-month and a 24.83% rise compared to the same period in 2024. Five major import groups surpassed USD 1 billion, including electronics and components, machinery, fabrics, phones and accessories, and raw plastics.

This marked the third consecutive month in which Vietnam’s trade volume exceeded USD 80 billion, following USD 82.29 billion in July and USD 83.06 billion in August — the highest monthly figures so far this year.

900 Billion USD Within Reach

By the end of September 2025, Vietnam’s total import–export value had reached USD 680.66 billion, up 17.66% year-on-year. Of this, exports accounted for USD 348.74 billion (up 16%) and imports for USD 331.92 billion (up 18.8%), resulting in a trade surplus of USD 16.82 billion.

Remarkably, this nine-month figure nearly equals Vietnam’s total trade value for all of 2023 (USD 681 billion). With an average monthly trade volume of USD 75.63 billion, maintaining this pace through the final quarter could push total trade to over USD 907 billion by year-end — a new all-time high.

In an optimistic scenario where Q4 performance remains strong — above USD 80 billion per month, similar to Q3 — total trade could surpass USD 920 billion. A third, more bullish projection suggests that if the current 17.66% growth rate holds steady, Vietnam’s trade value could expand by an additional USD 139 billion, reaching over USD 925 billion in 2025.

All three scenarios appear highly achievable, given that Vietnam’s trade volumes typically surge in the final months of the year, driven by seasonal demand spikes tied to global holidays and domestic consumption.

In Q3 2025, Vietnam’s trade turnover reached USD 247.84 billion, accounting for 36.41% of total trade in the first nine months. The quarterly average of USD 82.61 billion represented an increase of over USD 10 billion per month compared to the first half of the year.

A similar pattern was observed in previous years: in 2024, Vietnam’s total trade in the first six months reached USD 369.92 billion (47% of the annual total), before accelerating in Q3 to USD 208.57 billion, or 36% of the year’s nine-month total. Likewise, in 2023, the first half of the year contributed just 46.48% of the annual figure, underscoring the consistent end-of-year surge.

Furthermore, most of Vietnam’s key export and import sectors and trading partners continue to post double-digit growth, providing a solid foundation for record-breaking trade performance.

All indicators suggest that the USD 900 billion milestone in 2025 is well within Vietnam’s grasp, marking a new era of global trade integration and industrial resilience.

Source: Tap chi Kinh te - Tai chinh Online