Exports of cassava and cassava-based products in the first quarter of 2026 recorded positive growth in both volume and value, driven by recovering demand from the Chinese market. However, the export outlook in the coming period may be affected by import adjustment trends in this market and new management regulations expected to take effect in mid-2026.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam's export activities for cassava and cassava products in March and the first quarter of 2026 saw a distinct breakthrough in value, despite domestic raw material supplies facing local shortages in some production areas.

Vietnam remains the leading supplier of cassava chips and starch to the Chinese market, particularly for the animal feed, food processing, and ethanol production industries.

Citing data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that in the first 15 days of March 2026, Vietnam's exports of cassava and cassava products reached 259.6 thousand tons, valued at 90.51 million USD, an 8.5% increase in volume and a 29.6% increase in value compared to the same period in 2025. Specifically, cassava exports alone reached over 101.53 thousand tons, valued at 22.57 million USD, up 8.0% in volume and 25.4% in value.

The cumulative total from the beginning of 2026 to March 15, 2026, reached 1.06 million tons with a value of 359.41 million USD, up 10.7% in volume and 18.4% in value year-on-year.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MRE), the export volume of cassava and cassava products in March 2026 is estimated at 580 thousand tons with a value of 202.3 million USD. For the first three months of 2026, the total volume and value of this commodity reached 1.4 million tons and 471.2 million USD, increasing by 14.4% in volume and 26.4% in value compared to the same period in 2025.

The average export price of cassava and cassava products in the first three months of 2026 was estimated at 339.9 USD/ton, up 10.4% year-on-year, indicating that a recovery in prices has contributed significantly to improving export turnover.

Providing further analysis, the Ministry of Industry and Trade noted that in January and February 2026, many processing plants in Vietnam faced difficulties with domestic fresh root supply, causing exports during this period to decrease by 8.1% in volume and 3.0% in value at certain points, reaching approximately 517.6 thousand tons valued at 205.3 million USD.

Regarding the product structure, Vietnam's cassava exports remain focused on two main groups: cassava starch and dried cassava chips, while the proportion of deep-processed products remains limited.

In the first two months of 2026, cassava starch accounted for about 64.21% of total volume and 76.36% of total export value, mostly consumed in the Chinese market.

Meanwhile, dried cassava chips accounted for about 35.49% of total volume and 23.2% of total export value, reaching 286.1 thousand tons with a value of 62.38 million USD, a dramatic surge of 174% in volume and 185.1% in value compared to last year. This sudden growth was primarily driven by high demand for animal feed and ethanol production in China following the Lunar New Year holiday.

Other products such as arrowroot, industrial alcohol, and post-starch (modified) products still account for a small share of the export structure, despite being a high-value-added group encouraged for development to enhance the cassava industry's value chain efficiency in the near future.

From an import market perspective, the Ministry of Industry and Trade cited data from China Customs showing that in the first two months of 2026, the country's imports of cassava chips and starch reached approximately 1.23 million tons valued at 431.35 million USD, an 8.9% decrease in volume but a 1.6% increase in value compared to last year.

This development indicates that import demand is trending toward adjustment after a sharp increase in 2025, when cassava prices fell to record lows, prompting Chinese enterprises to boost raw material stockpiling.

Forecasts for 2026 suggest that China's total cassava starch imports may stabilize or slightly decrease, fluctuating between 3.2–3.5 million tons.

Demand from industries such as food, textiles, paper, and ethanol production is predicted to maintain a natural growth rate of about 3–5%, though speculative stockpiling demand is likely to decrease as prices are no longer at the lows seen last year.

Accordingly, the international market prices for cassava and cassava starch are forecasted to exit the bottom range and stabilize between 420–530 USD/ton.

A noteworthy policy factor is that starting June 1, 2026, China will officially implement Decree 280, replacing Decree 248, with stricter requirements for enterprise registration, traceability, and packaging/labeling standards for imported food.

This regulation is assessed as potentially causing local disruptions to the flow of cassava and cassava product exports in the second half of 2026 if businesses fail to complete procedures and meet new standards in a timely manner.

Source: Tap chi Kinh te - Tai chinh