President Donald Trump has always been tough on policies that put America first, especially on the economy. The influence of the “dollar” has a strong impact on many aspects of other economies in the world. Seafood exports, including Vietnamese pangasius, are no exception.

2017 - The first year President Trump took office and issued a series of decrees demonstrating the toughness of the administration. 2017 witnessed many trade barriers, following Mr. Trump's policy of protecting domestic production, Vietnam's pangasius exports to the US did not improve. Total pangasius exports to markets in 2017 reached more than 1.79 billion USD, an increase of 4% compared to 2016. Of which, the export value to the US market decreased by 11% compared to the previous year.

From 2018 to 2020, pangasius exports to the US decreased sharply. In 2019, export turnover decreased by 48% compared to 2018, and continued to decrease by 14% in 2020. Some of the factors leading to this decline include high anti-dumping tax rates, technical and trade barriers, along with difficulties from the US-China trade war. These factors have made exporting pangasius to the US difficult, especially when the US focuses on prioritizing domestic seafood imports and applying measures to protect the domestic market.

2021 - The last year of President Trump's term in office, pangasius exports to the US had a strong recovery, with pangasius export turnover reaching 371 million USD, 1.5 times higher than in 2020. The Vietnamese pangasius industry has adapted promptly and improved products to meet the requirements of the US market, while factors such as the reduction of anti-dumping taxes and the recovery of the US economy after the COVID-19 pandemic have boosted import demand. However, this increase in value did not last long, as inventory and inflation problems in the US began to slow down consumption from the end of 2022.

The dispute over pangasius began in 2018 when Vietnam sued the United States for imposing anti-dumping duties on this product. After the WTO Panel issued a draft ruling in 2020, the United States proposed to postpone the ruling with Vietnam to negotiate a bilateral solution.

At the end of 2024, Vietnam and the United States reached an agreement to resolve the dispute over anti-dumping duties on pangasius at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This is an opportunity for Vinh Hoan Corporation and the Vietnamese pangasius industry to expand pangasius exports in a more stable and sustainable manner to the US market with quality and sustainable products.

According to Vietnam Customs, pangasius exports to markets in the first half of January 2025 reached 75 million USD, down slightly by 0.1% compared to the same period last year. Many markets recorded slight growth in imports of Vietnamese pangasius such as CPTPP, the US, EU, Brazil, Singapore, etc. Pangasius export turnover to the US in the first half of January 2025 reached more than 7 million USD, a slight increase of 0.2%. On January 20, 2024, Mr. Donald Trump officially returned to the White House, along with promises about trade policies. This may affect the decision to buy Vietnamese pangasius of importers. In the first half of January 2025, the US temporarily dropped to 3rd place in the top markets consuming the most Vietnamese pangasius, behind China & HK and CPTPP.

The pangasius market in the US is still maintaining a cautious and volatile state. Although there are many expectations about price increases, the decline in consumption demand and tariff regulations continue to be factors affecting pangasius exports.

Source: VASEP