The largest import market for Vietnamese pangasius in 2025: Will the US "dethrone" China?

According to Vietnam Customs, Q4/2024, Vietnam's pangasius exports to China & HK markets reached 163 million USD, up 17% over the same period in 2023, and increased steadily in all months. Cumulative Vietnam's pangasius exports to China & HK in 2024 reached 581 million USD, up 1% over the same period in 2023.
The US enforcement of the WTO ruling opens up great opportunities for Vietnam to export more stable pangasius to the US market. This also contributes significantly to demonstrating the goodwill to strengthen the multifaceted relationship between Vietnam and the US, especially in the context of the two countries upgrading their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
In the past 10 years, in 2017, China for the first time usurped the "throne" of the US and became the largest import market for Vietnamese pangasius. A year later, in 2018, the US immediately regained its position. Pangasius exports to the US in 2018 reached 550 million USD, while exports to China reached 529 million USD.
However, pangasius exports to the US from 2019 to present have not been able to grow strongly due to the problem of anti-dumping tax. And China has been the leading market for importing Vietnamese pangasius for the past 6 consecutive years.
In 2024, pangasius exports to China will contribute 29% of the total value of Vietnam's exports to markets. October 2024 was the month when Vietnam's pangasius export turnover to China & HK reached the highest level since the beginning of the year, with more than 61 million USD, up 9% over the same period in 2023.
Frozen pangasius fillet products from Vietnam are very popular with Chinese consumers. In QIV/2024, the export value of this product to China reached more than 100 million USD, up 62% over QIV/2023. In 2024, frozen pangasius fillet exports to China & HK reached 349 million USD, down 6% over the same period last year, accounting for 60% of the total pangasius exports to this market.
In Q4/2024, China increased imports of dried fish and other frozen products (whole, cut, bladder,...) by 7% compared to the same period in 2023. Exports of value-added pangasius in Q4/2024 recorded a growth of 92% compared to the same period in 2023.

The US and China are currently the top 2 markets importing the most Vietnamese pangasius. In 2025, will the top 1 position of the Chinese market be adjusted when Vietnam and the US recently signed a bilateral agreement on removing anti-dumping tax on fillets exported from Vietnam?
The US's implementation of the WTO ruling opens up great opportunities for more stable exports of Vietnamese pangasius to the US market. This also contributes significantly to demonstrating the goodwill to strengthen the multifaceted relationship between Vietnam and the US, especially in the context of the two countries upgrading their Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
Source: VASEP