The latest data on Ecuadorian shrimp exports shows that the industry has negligible growth prospects between 2023 and 2024, with maximum growth of only around 1%, according to Gabriel Luna, an Ecuadorian shrimp farmer and owner of GLuna Shrimp.

The shrimp industry is forecast to remain in what Luna calls “technical equilibrium” in terms of total export volumes. “We can say that year-over-year performance is pretty flat. There’s no real significant growth, which creates a balance when you consider the large volumes of shrimp that are processed and shipped,” Luna said.

From 2023 to 2024, growth will hover between 0% and 1%, which is very low when you consider the millions of pounds of shrimp that are processed and shipped overseas. It’s really a technical equilibrium,” he added.

Ecuador’s shrimp industry faced a number of challenges in the final months of 2024. Export volumes fell from 230 million pounds (about 104,300 metric tons) in August to 190 million pounds (86,200 metric tons) in October.

However, November saw a spike to 260 million pounds (about 118,000 metric tons), thanks to shipments delayed from October. These shipments offset the declines in previous months, but Luna cautioned that the increase is unlikely to represent a sustainable growth trend.

“We saw a peak in November, but it wasn’t because the shrimp industry suddenly broke out, it was because of shipments delayed from the previous month,” Luna explained.

When averaging the numbers, he noted, total export volumes in 2024 are roughly on par with those in 2023. “The average monthly export volume in 2024 is around 224 million pounds, compared to 223 million pounds in 2023. That’s stability, but not significant growth.”

For now, the outlook for shrimp exports remains stable but not stellar. While the potential for growth remains, it’s clear that the industry is headed for a year of technical stability rather than significant expansion.

Ecuador’s shrimp industry, while still one of the world’s largest exporters, has struggled to maintain the strong growth seen in previous years. Weak demand in key markets, coupled with volatile global prices, has weighed heavily on the industry.

Ecuador is facing several major shocks in 2024. Earlier this year, China – Ecuador’s largest market – temporarily blocked imports from nine companies over alleged sanitary violations. In the US, its second-largest export market, the shrimp industry faces additional tariffs following a 2023 investigation into alleged dumping. The US claims that Ecuadorian shrimp is being sold at unfair prices and receiving government subsidies.

In December 2024, Ecuador’s shrimp industry suffered further losses when Brazil, an important but smaller market, suspended imports of farmed shrimp from Ecuador, citing “preliminary findings” of sanitary violations.

Despite the difficulties, Felipe Ribadeneira, president of the Ecuadorian Export Federation (Fedexor), expressed cautious optimism. In an interview with Forbes, he highlighted rising demand in the US and EU, along with Ecuador’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

However, he also warned of internal challenges, including the impact of climate change, power outages and political instability in key export markets. “We need to be vigilant to maintain our position in the industry and ensure sustainable development,” Ribadeneira concluded.

Source: VASEP