Salmon, octopus, fresh sea bass and sea bass, as well as cod fillets – four seafood groups that the European seafood industry is worried about as US President Donald Trump looks to impose further import tariffs. On February 4, 2025, the US imposed a 10% tariff on all imports from China, while tariffs on Mexico and Canada have been delayed. Recent reports suggest that Trump is considering a similar 10% tariff on imports from the EU, with the possibility of implementation “very soon.”

These four seafood items are the top US imports from the European Union, worth a combined $1.4 billion by 2024, after a decade of rapid growth.

“The EU seafood industry could face significant disruption,” Novel Sharma, an analyst at Rabobank in Utrecht, the Netherlands, told Undercurrent. “While Norwegian producers could increase domestic processing to avoid EU tariffs, capacity constraints make a complete shift unlikely.”

EU salmon exports to the US, worth $620 million by 2024, are the largest group of commodities at risk. This trade is particularly important for processing hubs in Poland, Denmark and the Netherlands, which handle large volumes of Norwegian-origin fish.

While Norwegian producers could increase domestic processing to avoid EU tariffs, capacity constraints make it difficult to move there entirely, Sharma said. “If processing in Norway becomes cost-effective, they could process more products there, but they can’t do it all.”

Octopus imports from the EU have also increased sharply, reaching $165 million in 2024, up from just $49 million in 2015. Shipments of fresh sea bass and sea bass, mainly from Greece and Spain, reached $99 million, while cod fillets remained important at $18 million, albeit in smaller volumes.

One factor in the EU’s favor is seafood imports from the US, which will total $847 million in 2023, although down from $1.05 billion last year. Key products include frozen cod, minced fish and surimi from the US, worth more than $300 million by 2023.

“The EU is a big market and they could also retaliate against the US with tariffs. The result would be a contraction of trade and higher prices on both sides of the ocean,” Pareto Securities analyst Sander Lie told Undercurrent.

Increased costs

Sharma warns that any change in processing location could upend supply chains that have been in place for decades. Polish processors, in particular, have invested heavily in facilities specifically designed to process Norwegian salmon for the US market.

Last year, the US imported $192 million worth of seafood from Poland, up threefold from 2019. The main imported products included frozen Pacific salmon fillets ($57 million), prepared and preserved sardines ($54 million), and smoked salmon ($43 million). This does not include the large amount of fresh Atlantic salmon products processed in Poland and exported to the US via the Netherlands.

“The very nature of this supply chain can make it difficult to determine the true origin of the product and complicate tariff measures,” Sharma explains. “The industry will likely remain cautious and wait until a final decision is made or there is more clarity on the situation.”

On salmon, US importers may switch to producers with lower tariffs, which could benefit Chilean suppliers, who have captured a large portion of the market. In 2023, Chile, along with Canada and Norway, dominated Atlantic salmon imports into the US.

However, with Trump’s tariff plans still unclear, those countries may not be exempt from the tariffs in the future, Lie said. “Even Faroe Islands-based Bakkafrost saw its shares fall [on Monday morning], as they have a large exposure to the US market,” he noted.

Sharma and Lie both said that if Trump’s main goal is to reduce the trade deficit and boost domestic production, imposing tariffs on European seafood products like salmon—which are not produced in the US in cage aquaculture—might not achieve the desired goal.

“From a rational perspective, it doesn’t really make sense because you’re just going to end up hurting consumers,” Lie said. “The ultimate goal here is to protect US industry… imposing tariffs on European goods like food seems a little strange to me, to say the least.”

Source: VASEP