In the context of declining seafood exports to many major markets, China & Hong Kong remain the largest markets for Vietnamese seafood, with a growth rate of nearly 45% in the first quarter.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in March 2026, Vietnam's seafood exports reached approximately 927 million USD, an increase of over 5% compared to the same period. The cumulative total for the first quarter of 2026 reached 2.64 billion USD, up nearly 8% year-on-year.

China remains the primary growth driver

VASEP assessed that the above increase is significantly lower than the nearly 20% growth seen in the first two months, indicating a slowdown and a heavy reliance on a few key drivers.

Regarding markets, VASEP stated that in the first quarter, China & Hong Kong maintained their position as the largest market for Vietnamese seafood, with a turnover of approximately 764 million USD, up nearly 45% over the same period. In March alone, exports to this market reached over 250 million USD, an increase of over 50%.

"This is not only the highest growth rate among key markets but also the decisive factor helping the entire industry maintain positive growth while many large markets such as the United States, Japan, and South Korea all declined," evaluated Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary-General of VASEP.

At the same time, she pointed out that the momentum from China in the first quarter stemmed mainly from three factors:

First, seasonal factors and consumption during the Lunar New Year. In 2026, the Lunar New Year fell in mid-February, leading to a surge in demand for seafood imports—especially whole shrimp, live seafood, and premium consumer products—starting from the end of the previous year and lasting through the beginning of the first quarter. This explains the sudden spike in items like lobster and shrimp in general.

Second, actual demand remains positive in the mid-to-high-end segment. Import data shows that China continued to increase shrimp imports in the first two months of the year, with an increase of about 18%. Notably, in the live lobster segment, changes in tariffs and supply from Canada created a "market gap," opening up clear opportunities for alternative suppliers, including Vietnam.

Third, geographical advantages and supply chain flexibility allow Vietnamese enterprises to better capitalize on short-term market upturns, especially during peak consumption periods.

"However, it should be noted that the strong growth in the first quarter also carries a timing factor. Part of the high turnover reflects the need for stockpiling and seasonal service rather than a long-term baseline growth trend. This necessitates a clear distinction between 'seasonal growth' and 'substantive growth' when evaluating the outlook for the following months," Ms. Le Hang emphasized.

Growth rate in the second quarter may slow down

The VASEP representative also warned that despite bringing short-term growth, heavy reliance on China poses several risks. First, the volatility related to China's import policies and management can quickly and strongly affect trade flows. Changes in border control, quality standards, or licensing rhythms could cause export fluctuations in the short term.

Additionally, the highly seasonal nature of this market makes demand unstable throughout the year. After the peak period at the beginning of the year, imports may stall in the following months, especially if domestic inventories rise. Furthermore, competition is increasing, particularly from large suppliers like Ecuador in the competitively priced whole shrimp segment.

"Therefore, while China is the main driver in the short term, rebalancing the market structure remains an important requirement to ensure sustainable growth," Ms. Le Hang advised.

According to VASEP, while China grew strongly, other key markets have not yet shown a clear recovery. Accordingly, exports to the United States in the first quarter decreased by more than 10%, continuing to be the biggest "bottleneck" due to both demand factors and technical barriers like MMPA/COA regulations and tariff barriers such as anti-dumping duties on shrimp.

Exports to Japan and South Korea also fell by about 10%, reflecting that consumption has not improved significantly. Meanwhile, exports to the EU remained almost flat, showing stable demand but not strong enough to create growth. However, this market still offers opportunities in the whitefish segment and products meeting sustainability standards.

On a positive note, markets such as ASEAN, Australia, Taiwan, and several emerging markets continued to grow, contributing to the diversification of outlets.

Forecasting the seafood export situation in the second quarter of 2026, Ms. Le Hang believed that China will still play a leading role, but growth will be more "substantive." According to her, in the second quarter of 2026, China & Hong Kong are likely to remain the largest contributors to Vietnam's seafood export growth. However, the growth rate may slow down compared to the first quarter as seasonal factors fade.

She also noted that growth will depend more on actual consumer demand and the ability of Vietnamese enterprises to maintain market share amid increasing competition. Segments catering to "affordable price – convenience" needs will likely play a more important role than seasonal premium product groups.

"For the entire industry, exports in the second quarter are forecasted to continue positive growth but with clear differentiation. Shrimp and pangasius remain the pillars; China is the main driver; while the US and some developed markets continue to be restraining factors. Markets with logistical advantages (close proximity, convenient transportation) along with tariff advantages from FTAs will be the preferred choices for seafood enterprises this year," evaluated Ms. Le Hang - Deputy Secretary-General of VASEP.

Source: Dien dan Doanh nghiep đien tu