In the first quarter of 2026, the country's export turnover of agriculture, forestry, and fishery products reached 16.69 billion USD, an increase of 5.9% compared to the same period in 2025. However, while many export items increased in volume, their value did not rise proportionally—and in some cases even declined—due to falling export prices.

Restructuring products and shifting strongly toward high-quality markets are essential to halting this price slide and ensuring profits for farmers and businesses.

Mr. Tran Gia Long, Deputy Director of Planning and Finance (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), noted that the downward price trend is most evident in the coffee industry. The average export price fell to approximately 4,697 USD/ton, a nearly 17% decrease compared to the same period, leading to a 6.4% drop in value despite a 12.6% increase in export volume. Rice followed, with export volume rising slightly by 0.2%, yet its value decreased by 7.8% as average prices dropped by 8%. Other commodities such as rubber and pepper grew in volume but faced price pressures, with rubber falling by 5.1% and pepper by 5.9%; cashew nuts saw slight declines in both volume and value as export prices edged down 0.8% year-on-year.

The cause of this situation lies in the general downward price trend on the global market, coupled with increasingly fierce competition among countries exporting similar commodities. The drop in agricultural export prices has directly impacted the domestic market, affecting the income and reinvestment capacity of farmers. Since early March, coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces have decreased by about 3,200–3,800 VND/kg, falling to just over 90,000 VND/kg. Similarly, winter-spring paddy prices continued to decline, especially as the peak harvest season began, with an average decrease of about 500 VND/kg. For pepper, domestic prices fell primarily due to a sharp increase in supply during the main harvest season, while purchasing power has not improved accordingly. By late March, pepper prices in key growing regions had dropped by 7,500–8,500 VND/kg compared to late February, fluctuating around 139,000–140,500 VND/kg depending on the locality. This development shows that when export prices decline, the domestic market has almost no "buffer zone" to maintain prices, causing an immediate impact on production. This also reflects the heavy dependence of many commodities on the raw material market, where prices fluctuate primarily according to global supply and demand.

Looking at the coffee industry, Vietnam still primarily exports Robusta coffee as raw material, resulting in limited added value. Amid improved global supply, Robusta prices on the world market continue to face downward pressure, pulling export prices down. According to the Department of Import and Export (Ministry of Industry and Trade), by early March 2026, certified Robusta inventories on the ICE London exchange had risen to their highest level in over three months. Meanwhile, data from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that global Robusta exports from October 2025 to January 2026 increased sharply due to recovering supply from major producers like Vietnam, Brazil, and Indonesia, thereby intensifying price pressure. However, while Robusta is constantly under pressure from oversupply, Arabica coffee—a product line with clearly defined quality and standards—has tended to increase in price thanks to stable consumption demand in the premium segment. This difference clearly demonstrates that price is closely linked to production standardization and product value. According to the Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, Nguyen Nam Hai, promoting deep processing is an urgent requirement to enhance the value of exported coffee. In the long term, it is necessary to build a clear standard system for Robusta coffee as well as a national promotion strategy, including product positioning, brand identity, and origin stories to gradually improve its status and establish a better price floor on the international market.

Regarding rice, exports are still mainly conducted in large volumes to traditional markets, making prices susceptible to being "swept along" by the general floor, especially as global supply increases. Mr. Nguyen Chanh Trung, Director of Hung Viet Rice Co., Ltd., suggested a shift toward developing higher-value products, such as small-scale packaging, building private brands, and distributing by market segment. This approach not only raises product value but also reduces dependence on general price fluctuations. In fact, Vietnam's specialty, fragrant, and low-emission "green rice" varieties exported to high-quality markets like the US, Japan, and the EU have maintained good price levels and remained less affected by global rice market volatility.

In addition to coffee and rice, pepper is in a similar situation; in the first two months of the year, exports were still primarily raw and unprocessed, accounting for 82.3% of total export volume. This reveals a trend of over-dependence on the raw material market, causing export prices to fluctuate erratically. It is evident that halting the decline of agricultural export prices cannot rely solely on global market developments but depends largely on the self-adjustment capacity of each agricultural sector. When products are standardized for quality, approached through clear customer segments, and shifted toward high-value markets, export prices will remain stable, helping each industry gradually master price developments in the global agricultural market.

Source: Bao Nhan Dan