Global tilapia production continues to grow, despite signs of weakening demand in the United States. Currently, Chinese tilapia exports to the United States face a 25% tariff. NFI’s in-depth report predicts that pangasius could largely replace tilapia by 2025.

The possibility of additional tariffs, especially with the new administration taking office, could radically change the competitive landscape for Chinese exporters.

“Global production is growing, while U.S. consumption is falling,” said Angel Rubio, a pricing analyst at Urner Barry, at the National Fisheries Institute’s (NFI) Global Seafood Market Conference (GSMC). “It’s a very complex situation, and it has a lot to do with trade policy and regulations.”

In the United States, frozen fillets account for 70% of tilapia imports, followed by fresh/chilled fillets at 15%, with the remainder made up of both frozen and fresh/chilled whole fish.

Ron Risher, CEO of Grobest Seafood Global, highlighted the scale of the industry: “Global tilapia production is estimated at 7 million metric tons, making it the most popular seafood product in the world.” He also said, “As political tensions between the United States and China escalate, tariffs on tilapia may continue to rise, creating opportunities for non-Chinese tilapia in the U.S. market. Several countries have begun to position themselves strategically, with Indonesia leading the way.”

While the majority of Indonesia’s tilapia farming takes place in Sumatra, where production costs are high, Egypt and India have huge potential for expansion. Vietnamese pangasius is also preparing to take advantage of the changing market dynamics.

Risher predicts that Chinese tilapia prices could continue to rise, which combined with the possibility of additional tariffs could dampen US demand. “If tilapia prices continue to rise or the US imposes additional tariffs, US consumption will certainly be affected. However, overall import volumes are unlikely to decline. We anticipate that there will be more opportunities for pangasius, although production capacity in Vietnam may pose some constraints,” he added.

In recent years, pangasius has steadily gained market share over tilapia in the United States, with a forecast ratio of 60:40 by 2024. NFI’s in-depth report predicts that pangasius could largely replace tilapia by 2025.

Source: VASEP