2025 promises to be the year when pangasius exports conquer new milestones, especially when the global economy tends to recover strongly.

According to VASEP statistics, Vietnam currently accounts for more than 40% of global pangasius production. The group of countries including India, China and Bangladesh contributes from 15-20%.

In 2025, Vietnamese pangasius enterprises are expected to benefit from the agreement between Vietnam and the United States to resolve disputes over anti-dumping taxes on pangasius and basa fish. Specifically, on January 17, in Washington, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, authorized by the Government, signed a bilateral agreement with its partners to end the dispute issues in the case at the WTO.

On that basis, Vinh Hoan Joint Stock Company, the only enterprise eligible to remove anti-dumping taxes according to US regulations, and also the leading pangasius exporter in Vietnam, was removed from the scope of anti-dumping taxes when exporting to the United States.

Previously, in 2016, Vietnam and the United States also signed a bilateral agreement to remove anti-dumping duties on warm-water shrimp products exported to the United States by Minh Phu Seafood Corporation.

After this event, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the United States grew strongly, and the same is expected to happen with pangasius.

After China, the United States is the second largest market for Vietnamese pangasius exports. This growth has continued since the second half of 2024. In December 2024 alone, pangasius exports to the United States reached nearly 28 million USD, an increase of 40% compared to December 2023.

Accumulated for the whole year of 2024, pangasius export turnover to the United States reached 345 million USD, an increase of 27% compared to 2023, accounting for nearly 20% of the total export value of this item.

Vietnam currently accounts for more than 40% of global pangasius production.

In addition to the direct agreement with the United States, Vietnamese pangasius also benefits from the country's plan to increase import tariffs on Chinese enterprises - a country that is aiming to increase pangasius production this year and has pledged to participate more actively in the global pangasius supply chain.

VASEP reported that China may reduce exports to the United States if the US's additional 10% tariff is maintained on all Chinese goods. Vietnamese enterprises have also recognized this problem and are considering expanding their product range, including processed tilapia in addition to pangasius.

Besides China, India is also striving to increase pangasius production. However, the size of this country's fish is generally small, mainly serving the domestic market. In other words, it is not completely suitable for the US market.

On that basis, VASEP forecasts that pangasius exports may increase by 5-10% in 2025. The reasons lie in the increasing confidence of consumers, the US anti-dumping tax on Vietnamese pangasius is lower than that of other countries, the price of aquatic feed is on a downward trend...

This prediction is based on the fact that pangasius exports are very favorable, growing strongly since the beginning of 2025. Currently, the price of pangasius in domestic ponds is increasing to the highest level in the past 3 years, fluctuating around 30,000 VND/kg. The price of products weighing over 1.2kg is even higher, due to the popularity of the US and Chinese markets and limited supply (about 5%).

Along with the high consumption demand in China (due to the Lunar New Year), pangasius exports in January 2025 are estimated to bring in 209 million USD, an increase of 27% compared to January 2024. If this rate is maintained, the export growth target of 5-10% is reasonable. In 2024, pangasius exports will reach 2 billion USD, an increase of 9% compared to 2023.

In 2025, Vietnam is expected to benefit from tariffs compared to other countries when exporting to the United States.

Besides the United States, pangasius exports to the CPTPP market bloc also recorded a 10% growth in 2024, with more than 274 million USD. The most impressive is Mexico, reaching 76 million USD, up 4% compared to 2023, and is the leading country in the bloc in importing Vietnamese pangasius.

Regarding export products, frozen pangasius fillets continue to be the main product, with an export value of 1.6 billion USD in 2024. Processed products grew by 45%, reaching 43 million USD. Exports of dried pangasius and other frozen products (whole, cut, etc.) reached 357 million USD, up 23% over the same period in 2023.

VASEP believes that 2025 promises to be the year when pangasius exports reach new milestones. Because both the United States and China maintain a stable growth momentum. In 2024, China and Hong Kong are the leading destinations for Vietnamese pangasius, reaching a turnover of more than 580 million USD, a slight increase of 1.3% compared to 2023.

In the report on the world economy in 2025, the World Bank said that the global economy will continue to recover. Demand in major markets will begin to increase strongly. This will be an important driving force for the development of Vietnamese pangasius.

10 years ago, pangasius exports to the US had impressive growth. The peak was in 2016 with an increase of 23% compared to 2015. However, from 2018 to 2020, pangasius exports to the US decreased sharply due to the country imposing many tariff barriers and external factors such as the trade war between the US and China.The situation improved from 2022, when the US opened its market after the COVID-19 pandemic and imported a large amount of Vietnamese pangasius in the first half of the year.

Source: Nong Nghiep Newspaper