In 2024, the Vietnamese seafood industry successfully exported to many countries, reaching the milestone of 10 billion USD, an increase of 12% compared to 2023. 2025 promises to be a promising year to boost exports to markets, including target and potential markets such as the US, China, ASEAN and the Middle East.

The US economy recovers, new tariff policies add opportunities and challenges

The US economy is forecast to continue to stabilize and recover strongly in 2025, bringing great opportunities for the Vietnamese seafood industry. In 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports to the US recorded a growth rate of 16%, reaching over 1.8 billion USD. Key products such as whiteleg shrimp, tiger shrimp, pangasius, tuna, and crab all had positive growth.

One of the important factors contributing to the increase in seafood consumption in the US is the rapid growth in workers' wages, surpassing the increase in consumer prices. This could lead to a trend of increasing food consumption, including seafood. In addition, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) easing monetary policy will also be a driving force for the US economy in 2025.

However, the major challenge for Vietnam's seafood exports to the US comes from the new administration's tax policy, especially the risk of disruption to international trade and congestion at seaports due to changes in tariffs. These factors can significantly affect trade flows and increase transportation costs.

China - a strategic market with many competitive pressures

China has always been one of the key markets and has a strategic position for the Vietnamese seafood industry. China's geographical advantage helps lower logistics costs compared to other major markets, along with the stable growth of the Chinese economy, which will be a strong driving force for Vietnam's seafood exports.

However, the Vietnamese seafood industry faces strong competition from the Chinese domestic market, especially when China's exports to the US may decrease due to new tariff policies. In addition, China's increased seafood exports to ASEAN markets, such as Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, will create great pressure on Vietnamese seafood products.

In this context, Vietnam can increase its market share in the US market, when China is affected by the trade war and tariff issues. However, competition from Chinese seafood products in international markets remains a significant challenge.

ASEAN to Lead Global Economic Growth in 2025

The ASEAN region and Asian countries are forecast to lead in driving global economic growth in 2025. Despite competition from countries such as China and India, ASEAN remains a promising market for Vietnamese seafood. However, seafood consumption in ASEAN markets may be affected by the decline of the middle class in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. At the same time, Thailand is also having difficulty recovering its economy after the pandemic. However, compared to markets such as the EU and Japan, ASEAN is still considered a potential destination for Vietnamese seafood exports in 2025.

Middle East: Increasing demand for seafood imports

Although accounting for less than 4% of Vietnam's total seafood export turnover, the Middle East is a promising market. Demand for seafood in Middle Eastern countries is increasing rapidly, especially as countries in the region are shifting from oil-dependent economies to developing non-oil industries, such as tourism, technology and food processing. Countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait all rely on seafood imports to meet their consumption needs. Therefore, the demand for seafood imports from countries such as China, India and Vietnam will continue to increase in the coming time.

To take advantage of the potential of these markets, the Vietnamese seafood industry needs to create incentives for farmers and fishermen to feel secure in producing and supplying raw materials of Vietnamese origin to take advantage of tariff advantages, and businesses need incentives to improve product quality, enhance competitiveness and open up export markets. At that time, we can confidently break through exports to return to 11 billion USD or even higher by 2025.

Source: VASEP