The logistics industry is inherently cyclical, experiencing increased demand and operational complexity during certain periods. By understanding these peak seasons, you can plan and prepare to ensure your business runs smoothly. In this article, we explore the five peak seasons in logistics by 2025, how they may impact your supply chain, and strategies for managing each peak season.

1. Lunar New Year (January 28–February 4, 2025)

The Chinese New Year (CNY) is the biggest holiday in China, marked by a week-long official celebration. As one of the busiest logistics periods worldwide, the CNY results in temporary factory closures and production slowdowns across a wide range of industries. The ripple effects are felt globally due to China’s prominence in manufacturing and exports. Production typically begins to slow as early as mid-January, with many factories shutting down completely during the holiday. Full operations typically do not resume until mid-February. This prolonged disruption causes disruptions across the entire global supply chain, potentially causing delays and challenges in meeting consumer demand.

2. Summer vacation and return to school (July–August 2025)

The northern hemisphere spring/summer holiday season, combined with the back-to-school rush, brings another peak period. Retailers, particularly in Europe and North America, build up inventories to meet increased demand for seasonal goods, electronics, clothing, and school supplies, often increasing shipping volumes and freight rates. Supply chains are stretched, as demand for both short-cycle goods (such as seasonal clothing) and long-cycle goods (such as electronics and school supplies) peak at the same time. This can strain capacity and lead to shipping delays, especially for imports.

3. Golden Week (China, October 1–7, 2025)

Golden Week is one of China’s most important holidays, marking a surge in consumption as millions of Chinese citizens take time off to travel domestically and abroad. Like the Lunar New Year, many factories reduce output or close altogether, disrupting production schedules and logistics. This peak season is heralded by a rush of outbound shipments to meet pending orders. This is followed by a post-holiday backlog, delays, capacity constraints and rising freight rates as the supply chain works to catch up.

4. Black Friday & Cyber ​​​​Monday (November 28 and December 1, 2025)

Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday mark the start of the global holiday shopping season—characterized by massive in-store sales (Black Friday) and online retail and e-commerce discounts (Cyber ​​Monday). They bring one of the largest increases in global shipping volumes, impacting both consumer goods and raw material supplies. The logistical challenge is twofold: managing inventory for in-store purchases while ensuring timely delivery of online orders, which can lead to bottlenecks and delays in the supply chain. This peak period impacts carriers and logistics providers as they work to accommodate increased shipping volumes, including last-minute deliveries and returns in the weeks following.

5. Year-end holiday season (Christmas and New Year)

The holiday season is another peak period in the global logistics landscape. Demand spikes across industries for both consumables and complementary goods. Retailers and e-commerce platforms prepare for a shopping boom, while businesses race to meet year-end sales and inventory targets.

Carriers are hit with high volumes and need to put in extra effort to meet delivery deadlines. As holiday shopping increases, so does the need for fast and reliable deliveries, both domestically and internationally. Coupled with harsh winters in some regions, this season is one of the most challenging for logistics professionals.

Note: While we’ve focused on just five major peak logistics periods, it’s important to note that high demand can arise in specific industries, creating a ‘peak season’ for that segment. For example, agriculture sees a spike during harvest season. Understanding industry-specific trends can help you prepare and adjust your logistics strategies accordingly.

Peak Seasons in Logistics: Common Challenges and Strategies

Every peak logistics season has its own hurdles, but challenges always exist.

What Happens During a Logistics Peak Season?

During peak shipping seasons, companies face a variety of operational pressures due to increased demand and seasonal requirements. Here’s what typically happens:

• Capacity constraints and shipping delays: With more shipments moving through the network, shipping modes such as ocean and air freight often reach capacity. This leads to delays as goods compete for limited space, especially at busy ports and freight hubs.

• Rising shipping costs: As carriers operate at full capacity, peak season surcharges (PSS) and higher freight rates become the norm. Businesses may find themselves paying a premium to secure space and deliver on time.

• Inventory management and overstocking: Storage capacity is also stretched as companies stockpile goods in anticipation of demand. This leads to storage shortages, increased storage costs, and added pressure to move inventory quickly.

• Labor and resource shortages: Demand for skilled personnel increases during peak periods, creating staffing challenges in warehousing, transportation, and shipping operations. This slows down order processing and increases delivery times.

• Last-mile delivery pressures: The surge in orders during peak periods increases the demand for last-mile logistics services. Carriers and delivery networks process significantly more packages in shorter time frames, leading to congestion, higher transportation costs, and delays in last-mile delivery.

How to prepare supply chain for peak season in logistics?

Planning and preparing for peak periods is essential to maintaining a stable and sustainable supply chain. Here are some tips to help you handle common peak season challenges:

1. Accurate demand forecasting and inventory planning:

   Leverage historical data, industry trends, and consumer behavior insights to predict demand during peak periods. Stock high-volume, high-demand items and prioritize essentials to reduce the risk of shortages, ensuring high customer satisfaction.

2. Secure carrier space in advance:

   Plan ahead and book with your carrier early to save money and secure a spot. Competition for transportation increases during peak periods, so working with your carrier will ensure a smoother journey.

3. Diversify routes and modes of transportation:

   To avoid congestion at major ports or hubs, explore alternative shipping routes or combine different modes (e.g., sea, air, road, rail, and barge). Expanding your options helps you accommodate unexpected delays or congestion.

4. Enhance last mile delivery planning:

   For B2C deliveries, consider partnering with local suppliers or extending delivery times to handle high volumes. Provide real-time tracking options to improve communication and customer satisfaction.

5. Allocate buffer time and emergency budget:

   Add time to your delivery estimates and set aside a ‘peak season’ contingency fund. This helps you prepare for unexpected delays or cost spikes without disrupting your operations.

Source: VASEP