Imports in the EU and the United Kingdom have declined for several consecutive quarters. Amid weakening demand, Vietnamese enterprises need to proactively restructure in order to sustain growth momentum in 2026.

Signs of deceleration from the European market

The European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom, two key destinations for Vietnamese goods, are showing less positive signals. Official data indicate that import demand in both markets has declined for multiple consecutive quarters, reflecting slowing consumption and production amid global economic volatility.

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Commission responsible for publishing official data of the 27 EU member states, in the fourth quarter of 2025, EU goods imports decreased by 1.4% compared to the previous quarter, while exports fell by 0.8%. This marked the third consecutive quarter of declining merchandise trade.

Eurostat also noted that the decline was not solely driven by price fluctuations but also by reduced trade volumes, reflecting weaker domestic and import demand compared to earlier periods.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB), in its 2025 Economic Bulletin, reported that euro area goods exports declined between March and August 2025. The indicator for new export orders in the manufacturing sector remained at low levels, signaling heightened caution among European businesses regarding global demand prospects.

As new orders decrease, demand for imported raw materials, components, and consumer goods from outside the region also weakens, creating spillover effects on exporting countries.

In the United Kingdom, data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that in December 2025, imports of goods from the EU fell by 2.4% compared to the previous month, equivalent to a decline of approximately GBP 0.7 billion. Total UK goods imports in the fourth quarter of 2025 also declined compared to the previous quarter.

These developments reflect weakening domestic demand and a trade environment still affected by post-Brexit factors, elevated financing costs, and cautious business sentiment.

On a global scale, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has lowered its forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 to a level significantly below the multi-year average, indicating that the slowdown trend is not confined to Europe.

Vietnam’s exports need sustainable restructuring

Against this backdrop, Vietnam’s exports enter 2026 with both opportunities and challenges intertwined. Speaking at the 2026 Export Promotion Conference, Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, highlighted achievements while emphasizing upcoming challenges.

“In 2025, international trade developments were unpredictable due to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies of major economies; domestically, natural disasters and storms were severe and unprecedented. Nevertheless, under the decisive and coordinated leadership of the Party and State, the timely and effective actions of ministries, sectors, and localities, and the extraordinary efforts of enterprises and citizens, Vietnam’s socio-economic situation continued to improve,” he stated.

He reported that total import-export turnover in 2025 reached USD 930.1 billion, up 18.2% compared to 2024; the trade balance recorded a surplus of USD 20 billion; and Vietnam maintained a trade surplus for the tenth consecutive year since 2016.

However, alongside these achievements, Vietnam’s exports are facing new challenges as the global trade environment becomes more volatile and less predictable.

According to Nguyen Anh Son, rising protectionism and increasing use of tariff instruments are making the global trade environment less stable and less predictable. At the same time, Vietnam’s import-export activities still exhibit structural vulnerabilities, including dependence on the FDI sector, reliance on imported inputs, and limitations in design capability, international marketing, and brand development.

The year 2026 is particularly significant as it marks the first year of implementing the 2026–2030 Socio-Economic Development Plan. Under Resolution 01/NQ-CP dated January 8, 2026, the export growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 15–16%, equivalent to export turnover of USD 546–550 billion.

“Export activities must continue to serve as a key growth driver, while shifting decisively from extensive to intensive, efficient, and sustainable growth, associated with higher value addition, technological content, and greater economic autonomy,” Nguyen Anh Son emphasized.

In the context of weakening demand in the EU and the UK, the shift toward intensive growth is no longer a long-term orientation but an urgent requirement. As markets contract, competition will intensify, technical and green standards will tighten further, and profit margins will come under pressure.

This requires enterprises to enhance their capacity to meet market standards, increase localization rates, invest in brand development, and effectively leverage free trade agreements to optimize tariff advantages.

The decline in demand in the EU and the UK reflects an objective phase of the economic cycle. However, in challenging periods, the autonomy and depth of domestic value creation within exporting enterprises will determine their ability to sustain growth momentum and achieve the ambitious export targets set for 2026.

Source: Công Thương Newspaper