While the US, EU, and Japan markets are expected to recover slightly, with China in particular, shrimp exports to this market are forecast to be difficult.

According to data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, in the first 5 months of this year, Vietnamese enterprises exported shrimp to 103 markets; bringing in 1.3 billion USD, up 7% over the same period last year. Export turnover increased slightly over the same period, which is a positive sign, however, the shrimp industry continues to face many challenges as the world economic situation shows no signs of recovery; Inflation is still high, the war has no end.

Vietnamese shrimp is worried about fierce competition in the Chinese market

Among export markets, China and Hong Kong (China) markets are leading with a turnover of 260 million USD, up 21% over the same period. Export growth to this market gradually decreased from January to April. In May, there were signs of a large decrease. The main reason is that Vietnam's shrimp prices are higher than those of rival suppliers.

In the following months until the end of the year, Ecuador, India and Indonesia will focus more on the Chinese market due to high tariffs imposed by the US, so Vietnamese shrimp exported to China will have more difficulty in price; especially whole black tiger shrimp and whole white shrimp.

On the other hand, according to Ecuador's National Chamber of Aquaculture (CNA), China has lifted bans on nine Ecuadorian shrimp exporters due to the discovery of too high sulfite residues. These nine businesses can now continue their export activities as long as they provide laboratory analysis ensuring compliance along with the usual HC certificates in each batch. China's ban caused Ecuador's shrimp export market share in the Chinese market to decrease from 64% in the first quarter of 2023 to 50% in the first quarter of 2024. China's removal of the ban will also impact Vietnam's shrimp exports to this market.

The US market will increase purchasing to serve the needs of year-end festivals

The US market ranked second in Vietnam's shrimp export turnover in the first 5 months of this year with a value of 229 million USD, up 1% over the same period. Shrimp exports to the US only increased sharply in January, on the contrary, they decreased sharply in February, April and May.

In this market, inflation is still high, housing costs, gas costs... are high. In addition, shipping rates increased dramatically by 40% from May due to the war in the Middle East and China collecting empty containers to reserve goods for export to the US before the new tax period. Vietnamese shrimp also has to compete strongly in price with Ecuadorian, Indian, and Indonesian shrimp in the US market.

Demand for importing Vietnamese shrimp from the US is expected to increase slightly in the third quarter of this year when importers increase purchases to serve the needs of year-end festivals.

Inventory decreased, shrimp exports to the EU market are forecast to recover slightly

In the first 5 months of this year, Vietnamese shrimp exports to the EU market reached 165 million USD, an increase of 8% over the same period. Shrimp exports to the EU, after decreasing in February and March, recovered and increased again in April and May.

Shrimp consumption in the EU market in the first quarter of the year was very slow because this market was greatly affected by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, the Euro depreciated against the USD; Ship freight rates increased dramatically by 60% due to detours, China collected empty containers to export to the US.

In addition, Vietnamese shrimp will have to compete more strongly with rival sources in this market such as India and Ecuador because these two sources face difficulties with high tariffs in the US market; Therefore, prices will be reduced to increase exports to the EU.

From now until the end of the year, the EU market's demand for shrimp imports is expected to increase slightly. Notably, this market's demand for imported value-added goods will grow better than traditional products because inventories have decreased significantly.

Shrimp exports to the Japanese market will recover slightly

In the first 5 months of this year, Vietnamese shrimp exports to the Japanese market reached 183 million USD, down 4% over the same period.

Although importers' inventories are not much, due to the devaluation of the Yen since the beginning of the year, there has been no sign of recovery and high inflation, so consumers are spending sparingly.

Shrimp exports to Japan decreased continuously from February to May, but the rate of decrease was not as strong as other markets. Japan is still considered a market with relatively more stable import demand than other markets.

Vietnam's value-added goods in the Japanese market still retain a better competitive advantage compared to other supply sources such as India and Ecuador.

Import demand of the Japanese market is expected to increase slightly from September to serve year-end demand.

Demand in the Korean market is expected to be stable

In the first 5 months of this year, Vietnamese shrimp exports to Korea reached 124 million USD, down 9% over the same period. Slow consumption demand, high inflation, devaluation of money, and increased interest rates make it impossible for Vietnamese shrimp exports to Korea to recover.

Although inventories have decreased, importers do not dare to buy much because inflation is still high, the currency is still devalued and when preparing for the main season, they are afraid that shrimp prices will decrease.

From now until the end of the year, import demand of this market is expected to be stable.

Source: Cong Thuong Newspaper