After a period of rapid expansion, Vietnam’s fresh coconut sector is showing signs of stagnation, as falling prices and export difficulties highlight underlying structural weaknesses in quality control and sustainable production planning.

Prices Plummet, Exports Lose Momentum

Fresh coconut prices have dropped sharply, even as major export markets like the United States and China continue to maintain high retail prices. Currently, large coconuts are being sold domestically for about 30,000 VND per dozen — more than 50% lower than the same period last year.

According to Mr. Cao Ba Dang Khoa, Vice Chairman and General Secretary of the Vietnam Coconut Association, the price collapse is not only a seasonal fluctuation but also a symptom of overheated growth. “Some exporters are mixing varieties and sizes within the same shipment to China. When the products fail to meet specifications, importers return the containers, forcing Vietnamese exporters to sell cheaply on the domestic market,” he said.

The international market’s quality requirements are strict, especially for fresh coconuts — a perishable product that demands precise handling and consistent standards. Yet most Vietnamese growing areas remain fragmented and unregulated, producing high volumes of mixed-quality fruit. This imbalance — surplus output but insufficient export-grade supply — is putting pressure on both farmers and exporters.

Currently, Vietnam cultivates 16 coconut varieties, many intercropped across different farms. Farmers often expect traders to purchase the entire yield, making it difficult to grade and classify fruit for export. “To sustain long-term growth, the sector must establish clear production zoning, ensure transparency, and require farmers to maintain cultivation logs — something rarely practiced today,” Mr. Khoa emphasized.

He warned that the coconut industry is entering a phase of “strong market filtering,” where companies failing to control quality will be forced out. “This is a decisive moment. Only those who invest in quality, technology, and brand integrity will survive,” he added.

Untapped Potential — But Urgent Need for Structure

Despite current challenges, industry leaders remain optimistic. Mr. Nguyen Dinh Tung, Chairman of Vina T&T Group and Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, affirmed that the sector still holds significant export potential, particularly for aromatic varieties like green Siam and red Siam coconuts.

By August 2025, exports of fresh coconuts had reached USD 115.5 million, up 15% year-on-year, while processed coconut products achieved USD 233.7 million, up 54%. The total export value for the first eight months reached USD 345.2 million — a strong indicator of long-term potential if quality and organization improve.

“With proper planning and standards, coconuts can become one of Vietnam’s next strategic export commodities,” Mr. Tung said.

Industry experts, however, caution against repeating past mistakes. Vietnam’s dragon fruit exports, once worth over USD 1 billion annually, have halved in value due to declining competitiveness. Similarly, durian — after its record surge in 2024 — suffered an 80% export drop when China tightened residue controls on cadmium and auramine O.

As Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, explained: “China’s failed attempt to grow durians in Hainan gives Vietnam an edge. But if we don’t strengthen quality and innovation, even that advantage will disappear.” His warning applies equally to coconuts — maintaining competitiveness requires continuous improvement, transparency, and adaptation to market standards.

A Sustainable Future Depends on Quality and Transparency

Experts agree that Vietnam’s coconut industry must align with international standards, especially as it targets premium markets. Long-term success depends not only on export volume but also on product uniformity, food safety, and traceability.

Sustainable growth in the coconut sector cannot be achieved by chasing output alone. The industry must embrace transparency from production to processing and export, while adopting globally recognized certifications for sustainable agriculture. Only through systematic, quality-driven development can Vietnam preserve and strengthen its reputation in the global coconut market.

Source: Bao Cong Thuong