In a short period, Vietnamese pomelo has consecutively obtained “entry visas” to two of the world’s most demanding markets, Australia and China. This is seen as a major opportunity for the sector to accelerate its growth. However, lessons from durian – which once reached billion-dollar export turnover but quickly slowed down – are raising the need for cautious and sustainable development.

Dual breakthrough in market access

On April 13, 2026, in Vinh Long, the first shipment of Vietnam’s green-skin pomelo was officially exported to Australia after more than two years of technical negotiations and compliance with strict quarantine requirements. This marks the sixth type of Vietnamese fruit entering this market.

Just days later, Vietnam signed a protocol with China, paving the way for the official export of pomelo and lemon to a market of over 1.5 billion people. This result brings the total number of Vietnamese fruit and vegetable products permitted for export to China to 16.

According to the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, if the opportunity is effectively leveraged, pomelo export turnover in 2026 could reach approximately USD 300 million, a sharp increase compared to USD 72.5 million in 2025.

Currently, Vietnam has over 100,000 hectares of pomelo cultivation, with an annual output of nearly 1 million tons. In the first two months of 2026, pomelo exports reached USD 14 million, up 30% year-on-year.

The rapid development of durian in recent years clearly illustrates both opportunities and risks.

Since 2022, after being officially approved for export to China, durian export turnover has surged, reaching around USD 4 billion by 2025. However, more than 90% of output depends on a single market.

When China tightened inspections on chemical residues and heavy metals, durian exports in the first four months of 2025 dropped sharply, reaching less than 20% of the same period the previous year. Domestic prices plummeted, significantly affecting farmers.

The causes have been identified as inconsistent quality management, fraud in growing area codes, lack of traceability systems, and rapid, uncontrolled expansion.

Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, stated: “With the current growth momentum, Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable sector could reach export turnover of USD 9.5–10 billion in 2026.” According to him, if market requirements are well met, pomelo alone could achieve around USD 300 million this year – a breakthrough compared to previous years.

Pomelo faces a critical choice

At present, the pomelo sector is also facing similar risks as cultivated areas have expanded rapidly in recent years. Large supply has pushed domestic prices down, creating pressure to seek export markets.

However, pomelo has certain advantages, such as year-round harvesting capability and distinctive product characteristics compared to Chinese pomelo. These factors provide a foundation for building a sustainable market if properly guided.

A representative of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection emphasized that raising producer awareness, strengthening quality control, and ensuring traceability are key factors to avoid repeating past mistakes.

From practical experience, experts suggest that the pomelo sector should focus on three main solutions: strictly controlling growing area codes and packing facilities to ensure transparency and verifiability; diversifying export markets to reduce dependence on a single market; and promoting deep processing to enhance added value.

Former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Le Minh Hoan emphasized: “A comprehensive strategy is needed to promote fruit and vegetable exports, positioning Vietnamese agriculture toward transparency, responsibility, and sustainability.” In reality, dependence on a single market, along with limitations in quality control and traceability, has caused difficulties for durian when import requirements changed. This serves as a direct lesson for pomelo, which is at an early stage of market expansion.

The global pomelo market is projected to exceed USD 4 billion by 2033, while Vietnam’s pomelo export turnover remains modest, indicating significant growth potential.

In practice, farmers in cultivation areas have begun to place greater emphasis on quality and production standards rather than focusing solely on price.

Cooperatives and cooperative groups are gradually adopting scientific and technical advancements to improve product quality and meet export market requirements.

The simultaneous opening of two major markets presents a significant opportunity for the pomelo sector. However, to become a sustainable billion-dollar export industry, Vietnamese pomelo requires a long-term strategy rather than merely capitalizing on short-term opportunities.

Lessons from durian show that market access is only the starting point; sustained and stable development is the decisive factor. The door has opened, but the ability to maintain a firm foothold in the market is the true measure of success.

Source: Bao Chinh phu