Vietnamese seafood export prospects for the entire year can still surpass the 12 billion USD mark, yet new signals indicate growth momentum is slowing down. Notably, impacts from the US imposing Section 301 tariffs at a 12.5% rate on Vietnamese seafood are forecasted to manifest more clearly starting in August and Q4, placing additional pressure on multiple core export commodities.

Growth slows as multiple markets decline

According to Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary-General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's seafood exports in July 2026 reached nearly 1.02 billion USD, up 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first 7 months of the year, turnover reached nearly 6.78 billion USD, up 11.5%.

Maintaining turnover above 1 billion USD in July continues to consolidate full-year seafood export prospects to potentially exceed the 12 billion USD mark. However, recent data also demonstrates that the most favorable growth phase may have passed as the overall growth rate stood at merely 4.8%; pangasius exports decreased by 6.1%; tuna showed virtually no growth; while exports to the EU, South Korea, and the Middle East all declined by double digits.

Notably, starting July 24, Vietnamese seafood items exported to the US began incurring an additional Section 301 tariff at 12.5%. Due to contract lag times and shipping durations, the impact of this policy was not fully reflected in July figures, but will manifest more clearly starting in August and Q4/2026.

Among core commodities, July shrimp exports reached over 428 million USD, up 4.5%; cumulatively for the first 7 months, exports reached nearly 2.78 billion USD, up 12.6% and accounting for approximately 41% of total seafood export turnover.

However, the increase in July stood significantly lower than the growth rate for the entire first 7-month period, indicating shrimp exports are still growing, but no longer maintaining the high momentum seen early in the year. Part of the current momentum stems from lobster exported to China, whereas vannamei and black tiger shrimp face fiercer competition in the US, EU, and Japan.

According to VASEP, the greatest pressure originates from Ecuador, as this country continues expanding supplies not only for head-on shrimp, but also head-off, peeled shrimp, and processed products. Ecuador is transitioning from a low-priced raw material supplier to directly competing against Asian enterprises in value-added segments.

In the US market, Vietnam also faces tariff disadvantages when bearing a 12.5% Section 301 tariff rate, while Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and several other competitors bear merely 10%.

A 2.5 percentage point margin, while not large, will significantly impact frozen shrimp contracts with low profit margins. The new tax is further compounded with MFN duties alongside anti-dumping or countervailing duties depending on specific cases. This creates grounds for US importers to demand price reductions, tax cost-sharing, or shortened contract terms from Vietnamese enterprises.

Accordingly, shrimp export prospects in the final months of the year will depend on Chinese purchasing power for lobster, the capability to retain deep-processed orders in Japan and the EU, as well as the degree of US order shifting toward Ecuador, India, or Indonesia.

Pangasius retains opportunities, tuna bears heavy pressure

Analyzing specific commodity sectors, Ms. Le Hang noted that for pangasius, July export turnover reached nearly 184 million USD, down 6.1%, yet cumulatively for the first 7 months still reached nearly 1.3 billion USD, up 8.8%.

The monthly decline reflects major markets making adjustments following a period of active purchasing in the first half of the year. China reduced purchases of certain large-size fish specifications, while exports to the US have not clearly recovered. Domestic raw fish prices also diverged according to sizes, as medium-sized fish serving fillet production for the EU enjoyed better consumption than large fish destined for the Chinese market.

Even so, pangasius retains opportunities in the whitefish market as prices for Atlantic cod, haddock, and Alaska pollock maintain high levels due to low quotas, rising harvesting costs, and ongoing supply uncertainties from Russia. This compels European processors to consider utilizing additional pangasius and tilapia.

In Q4, this commodity item may recover if enterprises secure alternative contracts for the year-end consumption season, while expanding portion-cut, breaded, and ready-to-cook products.

Meanwhile, tuna exports continue encountering numerous difficulties as July reached merely over 69 million USD, down slightly by 0.1%; cumulatively for the first 7 months, exports reached nearly 524 million USD, down 1.4%.

According to VASEP, the strong increase in June was primarily situational, as many shipments were delivered early prior to the new US tariff policy taking effect. Beside Section 301 tariffs, tuna also bears impacts from MMPA regulations and requirements for Certificates of Admissibility, compelling enterprises to strictly control raw material origins, harvesting vessels, sea zones, and import dossiers.

The new tariff policy will lead to 3 main consequences: new contracts with the United States must be renegotiated; Vietnam faces disadvantages relative to competitors bearing lower tariff rates; and Section 301 tariffs alongside other duties cause purchasing decisions to depend increasingly on specific enterprises and product codes.

According to VASEP, Vietnam issuing regulations banning the import of goods produced using forced labor, taking effect from early September 2026, serves as a foundation for continued exchanges with the US. However, in the short term, no official information indicates the 12.5% tariff rate will be adjusted.

Source: Tap chi Kinh te - Tai chinh