In 2025, the United States accounted for 17.2% of Vietnam’s total shrimp export turnover. The reduction in anti-dumping duties is expected to create additional room for export growth in 2026. However, a new tariff agreement between India and the United States is intensifying competitive pressure on Vietnamese shrimp in this market.

According to Vietnam Customs data for 2025, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached a record high of USD 4.6 billion, up 19% compared to 2024. The United States remained a key market, with export value reaching USD 796 million, up 5.4% and accounting for 17.2% of total national shrimp export turnover. However, in December 2025 alone, shrimp exports to the U.S. totaled only USD 45.2 million, down 16.4% year-on-year. This development reflects a slowdown in purchasing demand among U.S. importers toward year-end, as they proactively reduced inventories and adjusted procurement strategies in response to policy and tariff fluctuations.

U.S. anti-dumping duties “cool down”

In 2025, Vietnamese shrimp exported to the United States was subject to multiple tariffs, including reciprocal tariffs, countervailing duties, and the risk of anti-dumping duties. These factors caused volatility in trade remedy costs, prompting U.S. importers to exercise greater caution in price negotiations, risk-sharing terms, and delivery schedules.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) has announced the final results of the 19th administrative review (POR19) of the anti-dumping duty order on frozen warmwater shrimp from Vietnam, covering the period from February 1, 2023 to January 31, 2024.

In the final results, the DOC identified two mandatory respondents subject to duties: Soc Trang Seafood Joint Stock Company (STAPIMEX) and Thong Thuan Co., Ltd./Thong Thuan Cam Ranh Joint Stock Company (treated as a single entity “Thong Thuan/TTCR”). The DOC applied total adverse facts available (AFA) with a margin of 25.76% and adjusted the cash deposit rate to 25.46% after deducting a 0.30% export subsidy offset. For companies eligible for a separate rate but not subject to mandatory examination, the DOC assigned a margin of 4.58% and a cash deposit rate of 4.28% (after deducting the 0.30% export subsidy offset).

Compared with the preliminary results announced on June 7, 2025, the final POR19 outcome reflects positive changes. Previously, the preliminary rate for STAPIMEX was 35.29%, and the same rate was applied to 22 companies in the separate-rate group that were not mandatorily examined. Under the final results, the “separate rate” group has been reduced to 4.58%, corresponding to a cash deposit rate of 4.28%.

The reduction in the cash deposit rate for the separate-rate group helps the market recalibrate risk levels in contract negotiations. At 4.28%, enterprises are better positioned in price quotations, particularly for program-based or seasonal contracts. This also supports Vietnam’s ability to maintain stable supply to the U.S. market, especially for customers who prioritize delivery reliability and compliance capability.

Regarding developments in anti-dumping duties, VASEP stated that it is considering appropriate legal actions in accordance with U.S. regulations, in coordination with enterprises and relevant stakeholders, to demonstrate that Vietnamese shrimp exports are not dumped. The objective is to safeguard the legitimate interests of businesses, farmers, and the entire Vietnamese shrimp supply chain.

India gains tariff advantage in the U.S.

Recently, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order formalizing a trade agreement with India following discussions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Under the agreement, the United States reduced reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18% and eliminated the additional 25% tariff imposed since August 2025. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will also issue refunds where applicable for previously collected amounts.

India is one of the leading shrimp suppliers to the U.S. market. Previously, combined tariffs of up to 50% caused Indian shrimp exports to the United States to decline sharply in the second half of 2025. Although the highest tariff component has been removed, Indian shrimp remains subject to the 18% reciprocal tariff as well as existing U.S. anti-dumping and countervailing duties.

Despite trade volatility, India’s shrimp industry has continued to grow strongly. In the first 11 months of 2025, India exported 734,593 tons of shrimp worth approximately USD 5.23 billion, up 10% in volume and 17% in value year-on-year. This development suggests that U.S. tariff measures have primarily redirected trade flows to other markets rather than reduced overall demand.

Vietnamese shrimp under mounting competitive pressure

VASEP noted that India’s trade shifts during 2025–2026 are creating increasingly visible competitive pressure on Vietnam’s shrimp industry, not only in the U.S. market but particularly in the EU, traditionally considered an advantage under the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA). In the EU, if Indian shrimp benefits from equivalent or lower tariff rates, its price advantage—supported by large-scale farming and lower production costs—will become more pronounced. In that scenario, raw shrimp and mainstream product segments in the EU will face intensified competition.

At the same time, India is gradually restoring market share in the United States through new trade arrangements, increasing pressure in key export markets. This makes direct competition on price or volume more challenging for Vietnamese shrimp enterprises.

Nevertheless, Vietnam maintains significant advantages in deep-processed and high value-added segments. Quality standards, traceability capability, compliance with sustainability requirements, and experience in meeting stringent EU regulations remain strengths of the domestic shrimp sector. These factors provide a foundation for Vietnamese enterprises to sustain their position in mid- and high-end segments rather than competing solely on low prices.

In an increasingly competitive environment, an appropriate strategy for Vietnamese shrimp enterprises is to increase the proportion of deep-processed products, reduce dependence on raw frozen shrimp, and fully leverage tariff advantages under EVFTA. At the same time, expanding into potential markets such as Japan, South Korea, and member countries of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will help diversify export outlets and mitigate concentration risks.

In addition, stronger investment in sustainability standards, ESG (Environmental – Social – Governance), traceability systems, and “green” certifications will become strategic differentiators. In the coming period, the competitive advantage of Vietnam’s shrimp industry will no longer lie in scale or low costs, but in value addition, branding, and sustainable quality. These will be the decisive factors shaping the long-term position of Vietnamese shrimp in the global market.

Source: VnEconomy