Rice and vegetables are two key products that continue to help agricultural exports earn more foreign currency this year. Is there any risk behind the good news about the market that these two industries have to face?

Report from the Department of Crop Production (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) shows that if from now until the end of the year, there are no unusual developments in the weather; natural disasters and epidemics, rice and vegetable production in 2024 will ensure the set plan for area, productivity, and output; Meet domestic consumption needs and at the same time ensure the amount of rice for export is about 7.6 million tons.

Export forecasts are expected to flourish

Meanwhile, with the recent growth trend, it is expected that by the end of 2024, the total area of ​​fruit trees in the country will reach about 1.29 million hectares (an increase of about 20 thousand hectares). However, one of the difficulties is that the link between production and consumption is lacking and weak, so it cannot increase the value of agricultural products and easily leads to the risk of a poor harvest and falling prices...

Durian export is one of the products that is creating miracles in terms of revenue value.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) cited data from the General Department of Customs showing that, in the first 4 months of 2024; Vietnam's rice export results increased by 9.5% in volume and 33.6% in value over the same period last year; Fruit and vegetable exports increased by 38.1% in value.

Exports to key and potential markets all achieved encouraging growth (for the rice industry; export turnover to traditional markets such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia accounted for 70.69% of total export turnover).

For the fruit and vegetable industry, exports to the Chinese market account for 61.4% of the total export turnover of products.

On the business side, Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), forecasts that Vietnam's rice export market in 2024 will continue to prosper as many large markets increase import volume.

Regarding the fruit and vegetable industry, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Binh, Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said that the estimated fruit and vegetable export turnover in the first 5 months of 2024 reached 2.5 billion USD; increased 25.7% over the same period last year.

Vietnam's fruit and vegetable export activities are forecast to continue to be favorable in the near future thanks to abundant domestic supply and increasing demand from traditional and potential markets; In particular, some fruits such as durian have entered the main harvest season, dragon fruit, pineapple, watermelon, mango, longan, lychee... will contribute to further growth for the Chinese market.

Mr. Binh informed that currently durian prices in China and domestically are decreasing significantly because durian harvest begins during the main season in Thailand and Vietnam's Mekong Delta. The price of Dona (Mongthoong) durian is at 85,000 - 95,000 VND/kg and Ri6 is 65,000 - 70,000 VND/kg, down about half compared to the December 2023 price of 150,000 - 180,000 VND/kg.

“Demand for processed durian in China tends to increase due to high durian prices and few people can afford to buy whole fruits; Meanwhile, the price of processed durian is more affordable and suitable for young people's tastes. This may be a new market trend that we need to pay attention to," Mr. Binh noted.

Prevent 'buying and selling' from disrupting the market

Besides the achieved results, Vietnam's rice and fruit and vegetable export activities still have limitations and weaknesses that need to be focused on overcoming.

Specifically, the Import-Export Department pointed out that the production and processing processes of producers and businesses do not fully comply with quality regulations; Requirements for traceability and growing area codes; Production scale is still small, scattered, lacking connectivity, quality is unstable, exported products are still in raw form, lacking deep processing; Some businesses have not mastered the regulations and policies of the import market or the requirements accompanying incentives from FTAs; Some businesses have not focused on branding and product promotion; Agricultural trade does not pay enough attention to the domestic market...

At the same time, rice and fruit and vegetable trade activities in the coming time will still face many difficulties and challenges; especially in the context that the world continues to face many difficulties such as escalating political security instability in some countries and regions; Inflation rate remains high; Many major economies continue to tighten monetary policy... creating great pressure on the commodity trade market; Requirements for standards and product quality are increasing...

Assessing the rice market situation, the Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association said that it is necessary to monitor whether India considers removing the ban on exporting white rice or not. Currently, India's domestic rice price has increased and the Indian Government is still considering it.

To promote fruit and vegetable exports, the Chairman of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association proposed managing, inspecting and monitoring the quality of fruits and vegetables. Local authorities and specialized agencies need to monitor the implementation of processes during the production process; from using planting inputs, care to harvest (monitoring harvest time; product quality at harvest according to planting area codes) to ensure sufficient quality; Safe, easy and convenient for traceability.

At the same time, authorities in coordination with localities need to check and monitor the local business situation from input materials to harvested products, especially for key products. “Strictly and closely manage the broker team to prevent "buying and selling", pushing up prices and disrupting the market. Do not let foreigners hide in the shadow of Vietnamese people; Vietnamese businesses directly do business, manipulating the market in production areas, hubs, and agricultural trading centers," Mr. Binh proposed.

In addition, check and monitor the issuance and use of growing area codes and packaging facility codes correctly and effectively.

To achieve the goal of export recovery, increasing by about 6% compared to 2023, the Import-Export Department emphasized the need to remove difficulties for businesses and support production; Promote market information and trade promotion; Effectively take advantage of opportunities from trade agreements, negotiate market opening, respond to technical barriers, trade defense measures...

According to: Nhat Linh - Vnbusiness Newspaper