Vietnam's tuna export turnover unexpectedly surged in June, helping narrow the decline of the first half of 2026 significantly. However, behind this positive signal lies a series of challenges as the US market escalates tariff barriers, the EU tightens import controls, and international competition turns increasingly fierce...

Citing data from the Customs Department, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) stated that tuna exports in June 2026 reached nearly 88 million USD, up 31% compared to the same period last year. This marks the strongest increase since the beginning of the year, following a period of continuous export declines from February to May.

Thanks to this result, tuna export turnover in the first 6 months of 2026 reached approximately 455 million USD, down merely 1.6% compared to the same period in 2025.

THE UNITED STATES REMAINS THE LARGEST CONSUMPTION MARKET FOR VIETNAMESE TUNA

Although there have been numerous positive signals, the tuna export picture in the first 6 months of 2026 still exhibits sharp differentiation. The United States continues as the largest market with over 176 million USD, occupying nearly 39% of total export turnover, but still down 2.3% compared to the same period; the EU reached nearly 88 million USD, down 18%. Conversely, multiple markets are becoming new growth drivers for Vietnam's tuna exports, such as Russia up 83%, the Philippines up 31%, Egypt up 29%, Israel up 17%; the CPTPP bloc up 6%, and the Middle East region up 12%.

Evaluating the US market, VASEP stated that tuna exports to this market in June 2026 reached nearly 35.9 million USD, nearly doubling compared to June 2025. This is a notable turnaround following multiple consecutive months of decline. However, this increase primarily stems from importers accelerating delivery schedules to avoid risks of costs arising from new tariff policies, rather than reflecting a sustainable recovery in market demand.

Previously, in the first 5 months of 2026, tuna exports to the US reached only about 140 million USD, down 14% compared to the same period last year. Notably, the decline occurred continuously month by month, showing that importers still maintained a cautious mindset before market volatilities.

According to data from the US Department of Agriculture, total US tuna imports in the first 4 months of 2026 reached over 627 million USD, down approximately 10% in value and 11% in volume compared to the same period in 2025. However, Vietnam's decline was deeper than the general baseline, reflecting increasingly large competitive pressure.

NEW TARIFFS IN THE US CREATE FURTHER PRESSURE FOR ENTERPRISES

According to VASEP, a larger challenge emerged from July 24, 2026, as Vietnamese tuna exported to the US potentially faces an additional 12.5% tariff under Section 301, alongside MFN (Most Favored Nation) tariffs and existing duties. Through initial review, Vietnam's core export tuna products do not yet belong to exempt categories.

Although under legal regulations, importers in the US are the direct entities paying taxes, in reality, arising costs are often transferred back to export enterprises through requests to reduce selling prices, share tariff costs, alter product specifications, or cut order volumes.

Vietnam is not the sole nation bearing this additional tariff rate. Thailand and China also belong to the group subjected to the 12.5% tariff rate; hence, the competitive correlation among these supply sources has not altered significantly when considering Section 301 tariff factors in isolation. However, increased costs will continue to exert pressure on enterprise profit margins.

Beside the US market, tuna exports to the EU are also encountering numerous difficulties as newly applied import control systems make customs clearance operations tighter.

Meanwhile, Indonesia is evaluated to gain further trade advantages in the European market, creating larger competitive pressure against Vietnamese tuna in the coming period.

For many consecutive years, tuna has served as the third-largest export value group in Vietnam's seafood sector, standing only behind shrimp and pangasius. In the 2019-2023 period, tuna export turnover increased from 719 million USD to 845 million USD, equivalent to a 17% increase, with an average growth rate of around 3% per year. In 2024, tuna exports reached 989 million USD, up 17% compared to 2023. Entering 2025, turnover decreased to 924 million USD, 7% lower than the previous year.

In the US market alone, 2025 exports reached approximately 331 million USD, occupying nearly 36% of total turnover, but down nearly 15% compared to 2024. In product structure, canned tuna maintained stability, while frozen tuna meat and loin groups (HS0304) fell sharply. Contrary to the US, exports to the EU in 2025 reached nearly 207 million USD, up 5% compared to 2024.

Currently, Vietnam's tuna products are present in over 100 markets worldwide. The four largest consumption markets include the US, EU, Middle East, and CPTPP countries, occupying 82-86% of total tuna export turnover.

Main exported tuna species include yellowfin tuna, bigeye tuna, and skipjack tuna. According to VASEP, Vietnam's tuna resources concentrate primarily in central territorial waters and the central East Sea area, with estimated reserves exceeding 600 thousand tons. Among them, skipjack tuna accounts for over half of total pelagic fish resources. Annual tuna exploitation output reaches over 200 thousand tons. Yellowfin tuna and bigeye tuna specifically have average reserves exceeding 45 thousand tons, with exploitation output from 17,000-21,000 tons per year, concentrating in peak seasons from December to June of the following year. Skipjack tuna is exploited year-round.

In recent years, Vietnam has also actively applied international standards on sustainable fisheries exploitation, including EU regulations against illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing alongside other international certification standards, aiming to elevate competitive capacity and expand export markets.

Source: VnEconomy