US President-elect Donald Trump's plans to increase tariffs on many imported goods have trade experts and seafood trade groups predicting a tumultuous four years for the seafood industry.

Trump has promised to institute a range of trade policies in his incoming administration, including imposing tariffs as high as 60% on goods from China and 20% on goods from other countries. Any additional import barriers would affect most of the seafood Americans eat, said Peter Quinter, a US customs and international trade attorney at the Florida-based law firm Gunster.

“Seventy percent of the seafood Americans consume comes from other countries, so any international trade policy the incoming Trump administration puts forward will be significant,” he said. “The incoming Trump administration seems to be focused on international trade, especially with regard to imposing additional tariffs on a variety of goods that apply to all countries, but especially China.”

Trump has imposed sweeping tariffs during his four years as president, and he instituted tariffs on Chinese goods starting in 2018, affecting some seafood products. Those tariffs kicked off a trade war with China, leading to retaliatory tariffs on seafood and a sharp drop in U.S. exports to China. Maine lobsters, for example, saw an 84% drop in exports immediately after China imposed retaliatory tariffs.

But Quinter said the Trump administration’s impact on trade would go beyond tariffs.

As president, he would appoint the secretaries of each of his cabinet departments, along with deputy secretaries and general counsels. He would also appoint the heads of agencies like Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and the U.S. Trade Representative — all of which would impact trade.

“I expect antidumping and countervailing duties to be fully implemented,” Quinter said. “In particular, with respect to China, I expect the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA) to continue to be expanded to include Chinese seafood suppliers.

The seafood industry in China has been accused of using Uyghur labor, prompting some U.S. companies to stop working with Chinese processors and prompting U.S. lawmakers to call on the Biden administration to impose Magnitsky sanctions on Chinese companies. The U.S. has also recently imposed new antidumping and countervailing duties on shrimp imports from Ecuador, India, Indonesia and Vietnam — and Quinter said the U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA and CBP will step up enforcement of trade remedy laws to prevent mislabeling.

Quinter said the administration will likely adopt the same strategy as last time it imposed new tariffs to meet legal requirements.

“As the Trump administration did when it imposed a 25 percent Section 301 tariff on products from China shipped to the United States, the U.S. Department of Commerce must first review and determine that China has engaged in international trade unfairly by violating its intellectual property obligations,” Quinter said.

Quinter said the WTO would likely be ineffective in resolving any trade disputes that arise from the Trump administration’s plans.

“Unfortunately, WTO members know and agree that the organization is ineffective in addressing non-tariff barriers imposed by countries, and that resolving trade disputes between countries takes too long,” he said.

Source: VASEP