Tilapia and Pangasius are white fish species that are popular in the world because of their reasonable price, delicious taste, and rich nutrition. In some large markets such as the United States, tilapia is consumed more than Pangasius. China is currently the largest supplier of tilapia to this market. However, in the first 9 months of this year, the tilapia market is changing, both in terms of purchasing power, supply, and consumption.

China is a country with a large tilapia production industry and is the world's largest exporter of tilapia. The United States is the world's largest consumer of tilapia, and China is the main supplier to this market. In addition to China, countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Ecuador and Honduras are also suppliers of tilapia products to the world.

In the 11 years from 2010 to 2021, world tilapia consumption grew by 5.4%. Tilapia production in 2024 is forecast to reach 7 million tons, up 5% compared to 2023 and up 13% compared to 2020. However, in the current reality, the supply and consumption market of tilapia are changing.

China's tilapia supply falls

In the first five months of this year, China saw a 20% decrease in total tilapia exports compared to the same period last year, the lowest level since the pandemic began (down 28% compared to the same period in 2020).

The reason for the shortage of supply from China is: In 2023, the unstable market, unstable supply and demand, and prolonged losses by farmers have made Chinese farmers less interested in tilapia. In addition, other factors such as high feed costs and unfavorable weather conditions, leading to increased farming costs, have also had a significant impact on the decline in stocking rates as well as the amount of fish feed, many hatcheries are reluctant to make new investments. In early 2024, the tilapia industry began to recover, but supply is still lacking, causing high prices.

In early September 2024, super typhoon YAGI made landfall in Wenchang, Hainan and Zhanjiang, Guangdong, causing major infrastructure damage, affecting the power and water supply to farms and processing plants. The power outage lasted for weeks, preventing tilapia from growing in the best conditions in Chinese farms, affecting the quality of exported products to markets.

Although processing plants in China have basically resumed operations, tilapia raw material output has not yet fully recovered. It is forecasted that many orders will be delayed in delivery, increasing pressure on prices in the US market.

US tilapia imports drop sharply

US tilapia imports fell sharply due to low supply from China, putting upward pressure on prices in this market.

The US mainly imports products such as fresh, frozen tilapia and frozen fillets. In May 2024, the volume of US imports of chilled and frozen tilapia fillets fell to the lowest level since the Covid-19 outbreak. Specifically, fresh tilapia fillet imports reached 1,654 tons, down 7% compared to May 2023, with a value of 16.1 million USD; frozen fillet imports reached 6,598 tons, down 22% compared to the same period last year, worth 30.9 million USD, of which 5,742 tons came from China. In the first five months of 2024, US imports of fresh tilapia fillets decreased by 16%, and the volume of frozen fillets decreased by 19% compared to the same period last year.

Imports of fresh and frozen fillets are expected to be at their lowest level in 10 years, affecting supply and consumption in the US market. Due to tight supplies from China, the US increased its imports of fresh fillets from Colombia by 3.5% in the first 5 months of this year. In May 2024 alone, the country purchased 677 tons from Colombia, worth $700 million.

In addition to China, the US also reduced its imports of tilapia from several other Latin American countries in the first 5 months of this year. March is usually the peak month for tilapia consumption in the US, but this year's imports were at their lowest level in nearly 12 years, with shipments from major sources such as Honduras, Mexico and Costa Rica all falling. As of May 2024, US imports of tilapia from Costa Rica reached 2,541 tons, worth $2.5 million, down 25%; Honduras reached 182 tons, worth $1.72 million, down 69%; and Mexico reached 86 tons, worth $741,000, down 28% compared to the same period last year. The outbreak of streptococcal disease in tilapia farms in South America in 2021 continued into 2024, severely affecting these countries.

Brazil is the only country in Latin America that increased its exports of fresh tilapia fillets to the US. In the first five months of this year, Brazil exported 1,614 tons of fresh tilapia fillets to the US, accounting for 19% of the market share of this product in the US. This volume is expected to continue to increase in the last months of 2024.

Brazilian Tilapia Exports to the US Expected to Increase

In September 2024, Brazil exported 1,600 tons of tilapia products (including fillets), up 17.4% from August 2024 and up 60.2% from the same period last year.

The US recently abolished the requirement for a Brazilian Tilapia Quarantine Certificate. Brazilian chilled tilapia exports to the US are expected to double by 2025.

Brazil exports an average of about 13,000 tons of chilled tilapia fillets to the US each year. A Brazilian tilapia producer said it can ship tilapia to the US East Coast for distribution within 48 hours of harvest and currently produces about 20,000 tons of tilapia per year.

Brazil’s tilapia production is growing steadily and rapidly, with a growth rate of 8% in 2023 and 9% in 2024 expected to be 7% in 2025, with total production exceeding 500,000 tons.

By 2030, Brazil’s annual tilapia production is expected to increase to 1.2 million tons. With technological advances and Brazil’s abundant supply of feed grains, tilapia production will account for 80% of Brazil’s total aquaculture production by the beginning of the next decade.

Impact on Vietnamese Pangasius

The supply of tilapia from China to the US has decreased, causing fish prices to increase. This could be an opportunity for Vietnamese whitefish (mainly pangasius). However, the opportunity is not only for Vietnam, many other whitefish suppliers are also focusing more deeply on this market, typically Brazil with tilapia products.

Vietnamese enterprises should invest in product quality, technology, production lines, develop more value-added products besides the main product of frozen fillets, and communicate strongly to spread more widely about this nutritious but reasonably priced fish from Vietnam.

According to data from the International Trade Center (ITC), from February to August 2024, frozen pangasius fillets surpassed tilapia fillets, becoming the most consumed whitefish product in the US.

According to Vietnam Customs, as of October 15, 2024, Vietnam's pangasius exports reached nearly 1.6 billion USD, up 9% over the same period in 2024.

Source: VASEP