The tilapia and pangasius markets are tense ahead of the US tariffs on April 9. Chinese tilapia could face tariffs of up to 79%, while Vietnamese pangasius could face tariffs of 46% (excluding anti-dumping duties). Many exporters are speeding up deliveries, while others are waiting. Prices remain stable due to moderate inventories and uncertainty over how the tariffs will be enforced. Pangasius faces limited supplies until June.

The tilapia and pangasius markets are entering a tense period as the April 9 tariff deadline approaches. Some exporters have pushed ahead with shipments, while others are still holding off as the situation remains unclear.

The whitefish industry is under pressure as importers and suppliers scramble to prepare for the new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on April 2. Tilapia and pangasius – the two most popular seafood products in the US market – are on the tariff list. Tilapia from China could face a cumulative tariff of up to 79%, while pangasius from Vietnam will be hit with a 46% tariff starting April 9.

The tilapia market has been under pressure for months, but wholesale prices in the US have remained surprisingly stable, according to the US Census Bureau. Currently, Chinese tilapia is subject to a 25% Section 301 tariff – imposed during the 2018 trade war. This year, two additional 10% tariffs were implemented, followed by a 34% tariff under the “Liberation Day” announcement, bringing the potential total tariff to 79% if fully implemented.

However, domestic prices have yet to fully reflect this increased cost. This discrepancy is due to a number of factors: moderate inventory levels, buyers’ reluctance to bear the additional cost, and, most importantly, uncertainty about how the tariffs will be imposed, when they will be implemented, who will bear the costs, and how shipments will be classified.

As a result, many importers are keeping prices unchanged, waiting for more clarity before adjusting their selling prices to the market. According to industry sources, suppliers in Guangdong are willing to cut prices slightly to maintain production, while factories in Hainan are less flexible due to tight supply. Demand for shipments before the April 9 deadline is increasing, prompting some importers to rush to export, while others are choosing to store their goods in cold storage and wait for clarity on tax policies and possible trade negotiations.

Meanwhile, the swai market remains stable, with prices near the top of the quoted range. Vietnamese processors continue to face raw material shortages, which are expected to last until at least June. Large fillets or special specifications are currently fetching higher prices, but most markets still expect volatility in Q2, depending on harvest progress and inventory levels in the US.

The situation is further complicated by the lack of clear direction in trade negotiations. Vietnam is expected to push for a reduction or elimination of the 46% tariff. As one of the largest export markets for Vietnamese pangasius, the limited access could have a serious impact on domestic producers.

Currently, both exporters and importers are "holding their breath waiting", some are trying to sell ahead of schedule, others are still holding back to wait for clearer signals - while many hope that this may just be part of a short-term trade negotiation strategy.

Source: VASEP