As it enters the production phase, the shrimp industry has recorded numerous adverse fluctuations. Shrimp prices tend to decrease while input costs, especially feed, remain high. Coupled with scorching weather, volatile farming environments, and emerging diseases, farmers' production activities are being simultaneously impacted by multiple factors.

Extensive farming areas – Straining to combat the heat

In mid-April, intense heat enveloped almost all shrimp farming areas in the Mekong Delta. Outdoor temperatures continuously remained high, while the limited water exchange in the ponds caused algae and weeds to flourish, increasing the risk of environmental instability. Facing these adverse developments, extensive shrimp farmers are straining to respond, and the fear of risk is growing day by day.

In Tay Yen Commune (An Giang), Mr. Nguyen Van Muc stated that although the water level in the square has been maintained at a relative level, with common temperatures of 38–39°C and little wind, the risk of heat shock for the shrimp remains a major concern. Sharing this sentiment, Mr. Tran Tap (Vinh Hoa Commune, An Giang) believed that under prolonged hot conditions, monitoring and periodically supplementing water to limit temperature fluctuations is a mandatory requirement, which tends to increase production costs.

By this time, most of the extensive farming area in An Giang and Ca Mau has completed stocking, and some places have begun harvesting. However, unlike the pressure of input material prices seen in intensive models, the biggest concern for extensive farming currently is weather factors, especially water temperature fluctuations. If not well-controlled, the pond environment is easily disturbed, leading to disease outbreaks and damage to the shrimp.

In reality, the majority of extensive farming households do not have settling ponds; water supply depends primarily on natural tides. During periods that do not coincide with high tides, people are forced to use pumps, increasing fuel costs. If the heat continues for long, production costs will rise further, directly affecting the efficiency of the crop. Additionally, the risk from early-season rains is a noteworthy factor, as sudden changes in temperature and salinity can cause shock to the shrimp, leading to significant losses.

High-density farming – Pressure from prices and diseases

While the extensive farming model somewhat reduces the pressure of input costs and price fluctuations, for high-density models such as semi-intensive, intensive, and super-intensive, these factors are decisive for the efficiency of the entire crop. In the context of continuously fluctuating material prices, combined with the ever-present risk of disease, farmers are facing increasing pressure.

Notably, following optimistic forecasts about shrimp prices in the early months of 2026, many households proactively stocked early in intensive and super-intensive models with expectations of achieving high prices. However, increasing density and early stocking also increased the risk of disease outbreaks, especially diseases related to Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) emerging from semi-intensive ponds and subsequently spreading to neighboring areas, causing difficulties for large-scale disease management.

According to Mr. Vo Van Phuc, General Director of Clean Seafood Vietnam Joint Stock Company (Vinacleanfood), since the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East occurred, the prices of many input materials for shrimp farming have risen sharply, with shrimp feed undergoing consecutive price hikes. In the cost structure, feed usually accounts for about 60%, or even higher when shrimp encounter diseases such as white feces or slow growth due to EHP. Therefore, even a small percentage increase in feed price is enough to significantly impact production efficiency. Reality at the enterprise shows that for a pond with an area of 1.3 hectares and an estimated output of about 50 tons, the daily feed consumption reaches more than 2 tons, resulting in massive incurred costs when feed prices rise.

Meanwhile, the price of commercial shrimp has tended to decrease continuously since early March, further increasing pressure on farmers, especially as many regions are entering the harvest stage. Mr. Ngo Cong Luan, Director of the 14/10 Agriculture and Fishery Cooperative (Hoa Tu Commune, Can Tho City), shared: "With the current price level, only ponds achieving high productivity and large sizes are capable of ensuring a profit; for the rest, most can only break even or face the risk of loss. Particularly for medium-sized whiteleg shrimp, reaching the break-even point during this period is a significant challenge."

Confidence in recovery

Although the picture of the shrimp crop since the beginning of the year still contains many somber tones, positive signals have appeared, creating more confidence for farmers to stick with the profession. Specifically, in the first quarter of 2026, the stocking area, output, and shrimp export turnover all recorded increases compared to the same period, showing that the shrimp industry has not fallen into a pessimistic state as feared.

From a production perspective, many high-density farming households believe that the heat, while causing many difficulties, also brings certain advantages. If the pond environment is well-controlled, shrimp can grow quickly, making it favorable to reach large sizes. Meanwhile, the prices of large-sized whiteleg shrimp and giant tiger prawns currently remain at levels that can ensure a profit when productivity is reached, contributing to the recent trend of increasing high-density giant tiger prawn farming areas. Reality shows that some households switching to farming giant tiger prawns in plastic-lined ponds have limited price risks, thereby maintaining economic efficiency.

For whiteleg shrimp, multi-stage farming processes are being widely applied as an adaptive solution in the context of rising input costs and fluctuating selling prices. Instead of gradual selective harvesting as before, farmers are switching to thinning out the density to focus on raising shrimp to large sizes, thereby maintaining a stable pond environment, reducing the feed conversion ratio (FCR), and contributing to lowering costs and improving efficiency. Additionally, some households choose to stock in staggered crops to distribute risk, while also hoping to take advantage of favorable price timings. This method also helps effectively utilize existing infrastructure by "using the previous pond to raise the next," thereby saving investment costs.

In a context of overlapping challenges, shrimp farmers are still proactively adjusting production methods and flexibly adapting to reality. Confidence in the market's recovery along with experience accumulated over many crops continues to be a foundation for them to maintain production, hoping for more positive signals in the coming time.

Source: Tap chi Thuy san Viet Nam