Preliminary export situation of the world's three major shrimp suppliers in the first quarter of this year, according to the analysis by Willem van der Pijl, founder of Shrimp Insights.

Ecuador

Ecuador's shrimp exports have shown impressive growth in recent years. While all major global suppliers have struggled to maintain their export volumes, Ecuador has significantly increased its export volume, though the growth rate has slowed compared to previous years. In 2023, exports increased by 14%, reaching 1.214 million tons. However, the export value in 2023 decreased by 5% to just under $6 billion.

China remains Ecuador's most important market, consuming most of Ecuador's high-quality HOSO products. In 2023, exports from Ecuador to China increased by 17%, reaching 714,877 tons. China accounted for 59% of Ecuador's total export volume. Exports to Europe increased by 18%, while exports to the US increased by 17%.

When demand from China weakened, exports to other regions such as the US and the EU increased. Increased exports to these markets mean more HLSO and peeled shrimp products, whose live weight equivalent is higher than the export weight. Therefore, a decrease in exports to China and an increase in exports to the US and Europe doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in Ecuador's shrimp production.

This was the case in the first quarter of 2024. Exports to China decreased by 27%, while exports to the US and Europe increased by 33% and 20%, respectively. Compared to the first quarter of 2023, China's market share in Ecuador's exports decreased from 63% to 49%, while the US share increased from 16% to 22% and Europe from 14% to 18%. While Ecuador's total exports in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 8%, the equivalent live weight export volume may have remained unchanged or even slightly higher due to the higher proportion of HLSO and peeled products.

If Ecuador's export trends in the first quarter continue and exports to the US and Europe increase, other suppliers will face fierce competition in the HLSO and peeled shrimp segments, and prices may remain under pressure.

India

India's shrimp exports in 2023 reached 712,914 tons, contrary to most expectations, increasing by 1%, slightly higher than in 2022. The volume of raw frozen shrimp increased by 3% while the volume of value-added shrimp (cooked and breaded) decreased by 13%. Among the exported raw frozen shrimp, whiteleg shrimp accounted for 78% (up 3% from 2022), black tiger shrimp 5% (up 56% from 2022), and wild-caught shrimp 8% (down 13% from 2022). The total export value decreased from $5.5 billion to $4.9 billion in 2023.

In the first quarter of 2024, India's shrimp export volume increased by 4% compared to the same period last year. Although this is usually the lowest productivity quarter of the year, the slight increase in production is a sign that India's agriculture situation is not as bad as expected.

The increase in quantity mainly occurred in January and February, with export volumes increasing by 9% and 19%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. In March 2024, the export volume decreased by 11% compared to the same period last year.

In the first quarter of this year, India's whiteleg shrimp exports increased by 5%, black tiger shrimp by 7%, and value-added shrimp by 13% compared to the same period last year. Black tiger shrimp exports remained stable, while wild-caught shrimp exports continued to decline by 13% compared to the same period last year.

The average export value per kg of raw L. vannamei whiteleg shrimp showed a positive trend in the first quarter of 2024. After almost continuous decline in 2023, prices slightly increased in the first quarter of this year, although the value was still significantly lower than in the first quarter of 2023. The total export value of raw L. vannamei shrimp in the first quarter decreased by 5% compared to the same period last year.

Regarding export markets, India continues to export mainly to the US and Canada. In the first quarter of this year, India's shrimp exports to these two markets with whiteleg shrimp accounted for 46% of India's total shrimp exports, black tiger shrimp 23%, and value-added shrimp 87%. As Ecuador increasingly exports to the US, Indian shrimp exporters must strive to maintain their market share in the US.

For black tiger shrimp, although China and other Asian markets imported 50% of the total export volume in the first quarter of 2023, this decreased to 36% in the first quarter of 2024. The US and EU imported 23% and 27%, respectively, of India's total black tiger shrimp exports in the first quarter of 2024.

Indian farmers mainly focus on large sizes, and Asian markets have the potential to import Indian shrimp at favorable prices. Therefore, these markets may increase their imports of shrimp from India. The black tiger shrimp farming season begins in February and lasts for 8-9 months, with the peak harvesting and export period likely not occurring before the end of September or even October this year.

The US remains the largest export market for Indian shrimp, accounting for 40-50% of total export value, but India is losing market share to Ecuador. To stimulate growth, many Indian shrimp farmers have switched from whiteleg shrimp to black tiger shrimp. Black tiger shrimp production exceeded 50,000 tons in 2023 and is expected to increase further.

Indian shrimp processors are investing in value-added products and fish processing to diversify their products. Most Indian shrimp processors are vertically integrated and concentrated in Andhra Pradesh.

Indonesia

Indonesia primarily exports raw whiteleg shrimp and value-added shrimp products to the US. However, strong competition from Ecuador is shaking Indonesia's position in the US market. Indonesia is not a major supplier of shrimp meat products to the US, but it remains an important source of raw HLSO shrimp (including EZP shrimp) and value-added products (cooked and breaded shrimp).

Indonesia also faces strong competition from India, especially in cooked and breaded shrimp products, as India aims to diversify its value-added products. Indonesia seems unable to diversify its export markets with raw whiteleg shrimp and value-added shrimp products. Although China sometimes imports large quantities, demand from China is unstable. Other Asian markets and the EU generally do not import much Indonesian shrimp.

Other shrimp products like black tiger shrimp and wild-caught shrimp follow different trends. Indonesia exports black tiger shrimp and wild-caught shrimp mainly to Asia (about 50%), especially Japan. But in 2022 and 2023, China significantly increased imports from Indonesia. China is Indonesia's most important market. Amid increasing competition in the US, China's demand for Indonesian shrimp is a positive signal for the country.

In the first quarter of 2024, Indonesia's shrimp exports decreased by 8% compared to the same period last year. Whiteleg shrimp exports decreased by 18%, value-added shrimp by 3%, black tiger shrimp by 12%, and exports of other frozen raw shrimp increased by 20%.

Source: VASEP