More than 90% of Vietnam's durian export volume is concentrated in a single market. As this market continuously raises its technical requirements, Vietnamese enterprises are facing two simultaneous challenges: maintaining a billion-dollar turnover scale and gradually reducing structural dependence.

Right from the beginning of 2026, durian exports recorded very strong growth. In January 2026, turnover reached 117 million USD, a surge of 275% over the same period. By March 2026, the growth momentum continued to break out as the Chinese market alone reached 135 million USD, an increase of nearly 400%. However, it is noteworthy that this entire growth still primarily revolves around one key market.

High market concentration: Most output directed to a single destination

Although Vietnamese durian has reached many countries such as China, Thailand, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan, the export structure shows a clear imbalance. According to the General Department of Customs, in 2023, total durian export turnover exceeded 2.2 billion USD, of which approximately 90–95% was consumed in China. Moving into 2024 and 2025, this trend persisted as the Chinese market continued to play the leading role in driving the entire industry's growth.

Conversely, other markets, while accounting for a small proportion, recorded significant growth rates, such as South Korea (303%), Papua New Guinea (266%), the US (243%), Australia (68%), Canada (34%), and Japan (31%). Nevertheless, due to the low initial scale, these increases have not been sufficient to create a major shift in the export market structure.

This reality reflects a paradox: growth exists, but it is insufficient to reduce dependence. In the short term, focusing on a large market helps ensure stable outlets and rapid growth. However, in the long term, a "single-market dominated" structure makes the entire value chain vulnerable to policy fluctuations from the partner side. Any change in import regulations or technical standards can quickly ripple through to domestic enterprises and growers.

Tightening standards: Technical pressure becomes a major barrier

For the primary market, China, import requirements for durian have moved far beyond standard "permission to export," becoming a rigorous system of standards for compliance, transparency, and risk control. The pressure lies not only in price or output but also in ensuring that every shipment fully meets increasingly stringent technical, quarantine, and food safety regulations.

Specifically, China requires growing areas to be registered with codes, packaging facilities to be granted GACC codes, and exporting enterprises to be on the approved list; simultaneously, each shipment must have a phytosanitary certificate. Furthermore, criteria for pesticide residues, microorganisms, and heavy metals (especially cadmium) are strictly controlled. Non-compliant shipments may face warnings, disinfection treatment, returns, or destruction, and can even lead to a temporary export suspension for the violating unit. Consequently, technical issues are no longer merely professional requirements but have become risks to finances and brand reputation.

To adapt to these rising demands, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued Decision 3015/QD-BNNMT (dated August 4, 2025) regarding the food safety control process for exported fresh durian. This process establishes a closed control chain from registration and appraisal to the issuance of food safety certification for each shipment. Requirements for growing area codes, packaging facility certification, and traceability have been tightened, simultaneously increasing costs and risks from the stages of production and harvesting through to transportation.

Additionally, according to the draft TCVN standard for fresh durian, technical indicators are also specifically regulated; for instance, the Ri6 variety must reach a minimum dry matter content of approximately 32.29%, and the Dona variety approximately 32.22%—equivalent to Thailand's standards. Moreover, products must comply with limits on chemical residues and heavy metals such as lead, cadmium, mercury, and arsenic in accordance with current regulations and the specific requirements of each market.

In cases of non-compliance, enterprises will bear additional processing costs and face the risk of shipment stagnation and a narrowing of consumption markets. This demonstrates that complying with technical standards and ensuring origin transparency is no longer an choice but has become a mandatory condition for survival in the durian export value chain.

Vietnam's durian exports are on a strong growth trajectory, but the heavy reliance on the Chinese market remains a bottleneck yet to be resolved. At the same time, increasingly strict technical standards—from growing area codes and traceability to residue control and quality indicators—are turning every shipment into a test of risk management capacity. All of this highlights the dependency and fragility of the Vietnamese durian industry in the current context of competition and deep integration.

Source: Tap chi Tai chinh doanh nghiep