Shrimp exports to the US have continually declined during the first months of this year. Notably, challenges have intensified as the US recently imposed a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 7.56% under its 20th administrative review (POR20), an unusually high level.

Did the DOC make an error in its duty calculation?

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has recently announced its preliminary results for the 20th administrative review (POR20) on anti-dumping duties for shrimp imported from Vietnam. Accordingly, two mandatory respondents were assigned duty rates of 6.30% and 10.76%. The remaining enterprises received an average rate of 7.56% based on those two figures. The underlying reason was that the DOC concluded one of the two enterprises failed to provide complete descriptions for certain input chemicals to match with corresponding surrogate products in the US market. This led to the application of adverse facts available (AFA) to a portion of their input costs. The DOC is scheduled to issue its final results for this review in November 2026.

As an enterprise participating in the case, Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sao Ta Foods Joint Stock Company (FIMEX), admitted he was surprised by these results. Through documents published by the DOC, legal counsel advising the enterprise identified the root cause: the reason behind such an unusually high duty rate stemmed from the method used to calculate the value of aquaculture feed and the target farmed species. Specifically, while the price of shrimp feed in Vietnam is only around ten to twenty thousand VND per kilogram, the DOC instead utilized the price of larval feed, which stands at over 13 USD/kg. This discrepancy was the catalyst for the abnormally high duty rate. "Our lawyers will submit explanations to the DOC as soon as possible regarding this abnormal data to recalculate a more appropriate duty rate. Vietnamese shrimp has faced anti-dumping duties for 20 years, and we have experience in responding, so the important thing is to remain perfectly calm. This is merely a preliminary—temporary—calculation, and the respondent enterprises are preparing to supplement data proving they do not dump. I believe that once the error is detected and proven, the respondent enterprises will receive a reasonable rate in the DOC's final duty ruling," Mr. Luc stated.

Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary-General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), concurred that this is only a preliminary rate and not a final conclusion, meaning we have the right and the time to appeal to achieve a more favorable and rational outcome. Similar to 2025, the DOC initially announced a sky-high duty rate of over 35%, but after we supplemented dossiers and provided explanations, the final result was adjusted down to over 4%. This year, we have clearly identified the error in the calculation method, so the possibility of a positive "turnaround" is highly predictable. Participating enterprises and the association are actively coordinating to resolve this issue.

The shrimp industry needs restructuring

Over the years, the US has always been a top export market for Vietnamese seafood. However, in recent years, this market has continuously declined due to a cascade of challenges, including anti-dumping duties, anti-subsidy duties, and even counter-vailing duties last year. Additionally, market consumption has trended downward due to rising inflation and high shipping costs. Consequently, in the first quarter of 2026 alone, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US reached only 96 million USD, plunging by up to 29% compared to the same period last year. The US has dropped from its position as the largest shrimp importer to fourth place among key markets, falling behind China and Japan.

Mr. Tran Van Linh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Thuan Phuoc Seafood and Trading Joint Stock Company (Da Nang), shared that although this is only a preliminary rate, when placed against the general backdrop of a slowing US market, it has severely impacted business sentiment. If such a duty rate is officially applied, enterprises cannot continue selling goods to the US at a time when the market is already highly challenging. "For a long time, our strength has been in value-added goods. However, when the economy faces hardships and inflation rises in the US, consumers tend to reduce spending, allowing cheap and raw-processed products from Ecuador and India to take the lead. Meanwhile, India and Indonesia have recently invested heavily in processing, causing competition to intensify. On the other hand, the costs of farming, production, and processing in Vietnam are escalating. For many years, Vietnam's shrimp production cost has always been higher than that of other countries by an average of 1–2 USD/kg, not to mention rising labor costs, meaning we no longer hold a competitive advantage in this segment," Mr. Linh expressed with concern.

Several enterprises agreed that the Vietnamese shrimp industry is losing its competitiveness due to excessively high farming costs, whereas selling prices remain low because of fierce competition from multiple nations. There are two major weaknesses: breeding stock and animal feed. Regarding breeding stock, we are not completely self-sufficient in production. Successful farming demands a specific environment and cultivation process that regular farmers cannot always satisfy. High animal feed prices also present a significant challenge. To resolve these issues, appropriate investment policies for the industry are required from the Government. Stakeholders must come together to find solutions to restructure this sector to reduce production costs, enhance efficiency, and improve competitiveness against other countries.

Even so, the overall picture of the industry still reveals many bright spots. While the US market faces headwinds, Vietnam's total shrimp exports in the first quarter of 2026 reached nearly 1.1 billion USD, an increase of 17.5% over the same period in 2025. China has replaced the US as the growth locomotive, bringing in 440 million USD, a 57% increase, and accounting for more than 41% of Vietnam's total shrimp exports. Beyond China, the Vietnamese shrimp sector can place its expectations on other markets such as the EU, which grew by up to 17% year-on-year in the past first quarter to reach 120 million USD, and the Japanese market, which reached 117 million USD, up 1.8%.

Vietnamese flower crab fishery deemed equivalent to the US, major opportunity in a billion-dollar market

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has officially recognized Vietnam's flower crab harvesting fishery as equivalent to its own under the provisions of the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). Consequently, products from Vietnam's flower crab fishery continue to be permitted for import into the US market. Currently, the US is the world's largest importer of flower crabs, particularly frozen products, with an import value approaching nearly 1.1 billion USD—far outstripping subsequent markets such as Japan, China, and South Korea. In 2025, Vietnam's flower crab exports reached nearly 86 million USD, a nearly 6% increase compared to 2024.

Source: Bao Thanh Nien