Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US in October this year reached over 80 million USD, up 17%. In the first 10 months, shrimp exports to this market earned 646 million USD, up 10% over the same period.

Shrimp imports into the US from the top 3 main suppliers have all decreased, which has increased concerns about supply shortages. Market sentiment and the economic situation are more optimistic, inventories have decreased, and the oversupply situation has been rebalanced. Therefore, import demand from the US is expected to be higher and shrimp prices in this market have also improved and are on an upward trend.

The average export price of Vietnamese whiteleg shrimp to the US this year, recorded a continuous increase from February to July, then decreased continuously in the third quarter to 9.9 USD/kg in September and increased again to 10.3 USD/kg in October.

The average export price of Vietnamese black tiger shrimp to the US this year has been unstable, reaching a peak of 18.9 USD/kg in March, then decreasing continuously in the following 3 months. The price of black tiger shrimp fluctuated continuously from June to October, reaching 15.2 USD/kg in October.

In the US retail market in October this year, among frozen seafood products, frozen shrimp continued to be the item with the highest sales volume and sales value, with sales value increasing by 6% in October. Fresh shrimp also recorded increased sales in October. Demand for both items increased, partly due to the decrease in average prices, stimulating demand from US consumers.

Mr. Trump's proposal to increase import taxes on goods into the US after his re-election caused US businesses to tend to speed up the import speed to stock up on goods before the tax. Therefore, in the last months of the year, the demand for imported goods from the US, including shrimp, will continue to increase. But it also requires businesses to be well prepared to deal with risks such as increased freight rates.

US shrimp imports from Ecuador decrease

In September 2024, imports from Ecuador decreased by 17% compared to the same period last year. However, imports from all major Asian suppliers increased. Imports from India increased by 2%, imports from Indonesia increased by 14%, and imports from Vietnam increased by 21%. In the third quarter of 2024, imports from Ecuador decreased by 21% compared to 2023, imports from India decreased by 8%, and imports from Indonesia decreased by 4%. In contrast, imports from Vietnam increased by 7%.

In terms of import volume in the first 9 months of this year, Ecuador decreased by 8% in 2023, India decreased by 1%, and Indonesia decreased by 12%. In contrast, Vietnam increased by 9%.

In terms of major shrimp imported into the US, in September 2024, shrimp meat imports (mainly PD and PDTO shrimp) increased by 15% compared to the same period last year. In Q3/2024, imports of this product increased by 5% compared to the same period last year and in the first 9 months of the year, increased by 1% compared to the same period. Imports in the first 9 months of the year from India, Ecuador and Vietnam increased by 3%, 2% and 27% respectively. Imports of this product in the first 9 months of the year from Indonesia decreased by 19%. In 2024, this product from India led the supply with a market share of 57%.

US imports of shell-on shrimp (mainly HLSO and HLSO EZP) in the first 9 months of the year decreased by 12% compared to the same period last year. Imports from Ecuador, Indonesia, India and Vietnam decreased by 14%, 7%, 17% and 5% respectively. In 2024, Ecuador dominated the supply with a market share of 52%.

Imports of steamed and seasoned shrimp (mainly PD and PDTO) decreased by 9% in the first 9 months of the year. Imports from India, Indonesia and Vietnam decreased by 12%, 15% and 11% respectively. Imports from Ecuador increased by 21%. In 2024, India dominated the supply with a 39% market share.

Breaded shrimp imports increased by 2% as of September this year. Imports from Indonesia, Vietnam, Ecuador and India increased by 1%, 28% and 204% respectively. Imports from Ecuador decreased by 17%. In 2024, Indonesia dominated the supply with a 40% market share.

On November 19, 2024, the US International Trade Commission (USITC) determined that the US domestic shrimp industry was injured by imports of shrimp sold at less than fair value or benefiting from subsidies.

The USITC affirmed the US Department of Commerce's (DOC) conclusion that frozen warmwater shrimp from Indonesia were sold in the US at less than fair value. At the same time, the USITC also agreed with the DOC's conclusions that shrimp imported from Ecuador, India and Vietnam received subsidies from domestic governments. This decision "paves the way" for the US Department of Commerce to issue countervailing duty orders on shrimp imported from Ecuador, India and Vietnam, as well as antidumping duty orders on shrimp from Indonesia.

If the tax order is issued, Vietnamese shrimp exports to the US will face additional challenges. Vietnamese shrimp enterprises have to struggle and find ways to maintain the market, such as focusing on products that are not subject to tax.

Source: VASEP