During the first 5 months of 2026, shrimp exports grew by 11.5% and pangasius exports rose by 12.6% compared to the same period last year. This double-digit growth demonstrates that the seafood sector is successfully maintaining its positive recovery momentum.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in May 2026, Vietnam's seafood exports reached 1.02 billion USD, edging up slightly by 0.6% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively for the first 5 months of the year, the entire sector's export turnover achieved 4.67 billion USD, a 11% increase compared to the same period in 2025.

SHRIMP RETAINS THE TOP SPOT BUT FACES MULTIPLE PRESSURES

Shrimp continues to anchor its position as the flagship export commodity with a turnover reaching 1.9 billion USD in the first 5 months, rising 11.5% and accounting for roughly 40.4% of the total seafood export value. The growth engine of the shrimp industry stemmed from a demand recovery across several Asian markets, an uptick in the consumption of processed items, and robust lobster exports to China.

However, a highly notable issue at present is the mismatch between domestic production and import demand. Numerous localities are trending toward farming large-sized shrimp to optimize product value, whereas, in several major markets, demand is heavily concentrated on small-sized shrimp to serve the budget-conscious consumer segment.

A positive signal for the pangasius industry is that the global whitefish supply is showing signs of contraction. Alaska pollock output fell by approximately 30%, while surging fuel costs drove up raw material prices by 30% to 50%. This escalates supply shortage anxieties and may prompt a portion of demand to shift toward farmed species holding more stable supplies, such as pangasius and tilapia.

VASEP stated that pangasius exports in the first 5 months reached 905 million USD, an increase of 12.6% over the same period last year. This is regarded as one of the commodity sectors holding a favorable foundation thanks to a stable supply, competitive pricing, and consumption demand that aligns with the cost-saving trends across multiple markets.

Pangasius currently sustains growth room in China, ASEAN, the Middle East, the European Union (EU), and several emerging markets. In a context where global consumers continue to prioritize reasonably priced products, pangasius is evaluated to stand an excellent chance of securing its standing within the whitefish group.

However, this industry is also enduring mounting pressure from production costs. Fingerling prices have maintained high levels from 2025 to date, alongside rising costs for feed, logistics, and multiple other inputs, causing farmers to be more cautious about expanding cultivation areas. If this trend persists, farming costs may continue to escalate, squeezing raw material prices and the profit margins of export processing enterprises.

TUNA EXPORTS DECLINE AMID RESOURCE BOTTLENECKS

In stark contrast to shrimp and pangasius, tuna exports in the first 5 months declined by 6%, dropping to 372 million USD. This product group felt distinct impacts from a domestic raw material shortage alongside increasingly stringent traceability mandates. US regulations regarding marine mammal protection and seafood import monitoring programs, coupled with the EU's anti-illegal fishing (IUU) rules, are driving up compliance costs, prolonging paperwork completion timelines, and hampering the signing of new contracts.

Conversely, multiple other seafood groups logged positive results during the first 5 months. Squid and octopus reached 304 million USD, an 18% increase; crabs, swimming crabs, and other crustaceans achieved 160 million USD, up 19%; bivalve mollusks logged 122 million USD, climbing 22.8%. These items are embracing opportunities to expand their market shares in Japan, South Korea, China, the US, and the EU, particularly for processed, convenient, and high-value-added products.

Nonetheless, the greatest vulnerability of this seafood group remains its heavy reliance on captured wild resources and legally imported raw materials. Soaring fuel costs, high logistics expenses, and tightening origin certification requirements are exerting direct impacts on outputs, raw material pricing, and delivery schedules.

CHINESE MARKET ANCHORS SECTOR-WIDE GROWTH

In terms of destinations, China and Hong Kong continue to act as the largest growth engines for Vietnamese seafood exports, with a turnover reaching 1.2 billion USD in the first 5 months of 2026, marking a powerful 40.5% surge compared to the previous year.

Rising demand for items like shrimp, pangasius, crabs, mollusks, and multiple high-value seafood varieties contributed significantly to the overall results of the entire sector. However, this market is rapidly transitioning toward formal importation channels with increasingly strict demands regarding quality, biosecurity, enterprise registration, farming zone codes, and traceability. The enforcement of Decree 280 on June 1, 2026, replacing Decree 248, is viewed as a signal that growth in China will be tightly bound to the standardization of export operations.

Meanwhile, seafood exports to Japan edged up slightly by 0.4%, South Korea rose by 4%, and ASEAN expanded by 16.8%. On the other hand, exports to the US fell by 10% to 689 million USD, and exports to the EU dipped by 2.2% to 435.6 million USD. These two markets continue to impose heavy pressures related to tariffs, trade defenses, traceability, food safety, IUU regulations, and sustainable development standards.

Based on the outcomes achieved in the first 5 months, VASEP forecasts that seafood exports for the full year of 2026 could grow by around 8% to 10%, driving the entire sector's turnover past the 12 billion USD milestone. To secure this target, the seafood industry must sustain positive demand from the Chinese market, capitalize on the competitive edge of pangasius, optimize the competitiveness of the shrimp sector, and untangle bottlenecks related to IUU fishing, raw material certifications, and traceability across the seafood groups.

Source: VnEconomy