In recent years, the US has always been Vietnam's largest seafood export market. Seafood export turnover to the US in the past 5 years has fluctuated from 1.5 billion USD to 2.1 billion USD per year. Despite always facing strict protection policies such as anti-dumping and anti-subsidy taxes, the demand of the US market is still very large and the quality of Vietnamese seafood is increasingly improved, helping to maintain and expand its position in this market.

Therefore, Vietnam's seafood trade with the US is less affected by political fluctuations such as the US presidential election results, although the election results may cause disruptions in world trade. However, if Donald Trump is re-elected as President, the specific US trade policies under Trump may create both opportunities and challenges for Vietnam's seafood exports in the coming time.

Opportunities from the US-China trade war

In the context of the US-China trade confrontation, there may be major changes in the US supply chain and imports. Specifically, the US may reduce imports of seafood products from China and seek alternative sources, including Vietnam.

Shrimp and pangasius are Vietnam's main seafood products exported to the US, and the US's increase in tariffs on Chinese seafood may open up great opportunities for Vietnamese shrimp and pangasius to replace Chinese seafood products. This will help increase Vietnam's seafood exports to the US market. In addition, China, with reduced imports of seafood from the US, may switch to importing seafood products from Vietnam instead.

As the trade war intensifies, the global supply chain may be disrupted, creating an opportunity for Vietnam to become a reliable alternative source for countries that want to avoid high tariffs from the US, especially seafood products. Therefore, Vietnam can be chosen as an alternative supplier in the global supply chain.

However, to make the most of these opportunities, Vietnamese seafood enterprises need to maintain high product quality, increase deep processing and exploit free trade agreements (FTAs) to expand markets and improve competitiveness.

Challenges from US trade defense policies

While Vietnam may be able to take advantage of some opportunities from the US-China trade war, at the same time, Vietnamese seafood businesses also face US trade defense measures. These measures may include anti-dumping duties, anti-subsidy duties and strict product quality requirements.

Although the results of anti-dumping duties on shrimp, pangasius and anti-subsidy duties on Vietnamese shrimp exported to the US are likely to be more favorable in 2024, businesses still need to be cautious and strategic when exporting to this market. The US government under Trump has strengthened protection measures related to food safety and quality standards. This may make it difficult for Vietnamese seafood exporters to comply with stricter food safety standards, leading to increased production and inspection costs.

In addition, the US's protectionist policies and tariff barriers may also increase competition between Vietnam and other seafood exporting countries such as India, Ecuador, or Indonesia, which are major competitors in the seafood industry.

Recommendations for Vietnamese seafood businesses

To increase seafood exports to the US in the context of changing international trade policies, Vietnamese seafood enterprises need to be proactive and flexible in adapting to market fluctuations.

By the end of October 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports to the US had reached 1.5 billion USD, up 15% over the same period last year. It is estimated that in 2024, seafood exports to the US will bring in 1.85 billion USD, up 19% over 2023.

Exported seafood products must fully comply with FDA (US Food and Drug Administration) regulations, including standards on hygiene, food safety and disease prevention. At the same time, businesses need to ensure standards on sustainable production and strict quality control from farming to processing to meet the increasingly high requirements of the US market.

American customers and consumers are increasingly concerned about issues related to sustainability, environmental protection and social responsibility. Therefore, Vietnamese seafood businesses should apply sustainable farming methods, such as clean shrimp farming, and aquaculture according to international standards (GlobalGAP, ASC, MSC) to enhance their reputation and meet the increasingly high requirements of the market.

Businesses need to provide transparent information about the production process, raw material origin and quality standards. This will help build trust with consumers and partners in the US, while meeting the needs of distributors, supermarkets and large retail systems in the US.

Vietnamese seafood enterprises need to improve their competitiveness, have effective production and business strategies with reasonable and transparent product prices. At the same time, enterprises need to have plans to respond quickly to changes in tariffs and trade measures of the US.

Source: VASEP