Seafood exports to the US no longer belong to enterprises competing through low prices, but are tilting toward units that excel at document control, meet compliance requirements, and select the correct market segments.

Wide doors for swimming crab, shrimp continues to face pressure

The US market is sending mixed signals to Vietnamese seafood. While swimming crab welcomes a major opportunity thanks to being recognized as equivalent by the US side regarding its fishery operations, shrimp continues to face pressure from anti-dumping duties and declining import demands. In this context, opportunities no longer belong to enterprises competing through low prices, but are tilting toward units that excel at document control, meet compliance requirements, and select the correct market segments.

According to Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary-General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the US market is currently showing mixed signals for Vietnamese seafood. The brightest highlight is swimming crab, as the US side has just recognized equivalence for Vietnam's swimming crab fisheries, creating favorable conditions for the product to continue being exported to this market and expanding its competitive edge.

The positive development came from a decision by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in May 2026, according to which swimming crab and products from Vietnam's swimming crab fisheries continue to be permitted for import into the US. Notably, while Vietnam achieved equivalence recognition, the Philippines failed to obtain recognition for several related swimming crab fisheries and will face an import halt starting June 11, 2026.

This opens up a substantial opportunity for Vietnamese enterprises, as US importers tend to shift orders toward accepted supply sources like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. This is regarded as a short-term but highly distinct opportunity for Vietnamese swimming crab to expand its market share in one of the world's largest consuming markets.

In contrast, shrimp—the flagship export commodity of Vietnam's seafood industry—is still confronting numerous hardships. Preliminary results of the 20th administrative review published by the US Department of Commerce on May 13, 2026, showed that the anti-dumping duty rates for the two mandatory respondents stood at 10.76% and 6.30%, respectively; the remaining enterprises were granted a separate rate of 7.56%.

Although these are only preliminary results and not the final duty rates, this information has added pressure to price negotiations while impacting the purchasing sentiment of US importers. In a context where the consumption market has not strongly recovered, the aforementioned tax rates further escalate pressure on Vietnamese shrimp export enterprises.

Not only facing pressure from trade defense measures, the US import demand for shrimp is also at a low level. In March 2026, the US imported 56,523 tons of shrimp, a 19% decrease compared to the same period last year. For the whole of the first quarter of 2026, the import volume reached 181,656 tons, a decline of 11%.

According to commodity experts, this development shows that purchasing power in the US is not yet strong enough to absorb rising price and cost pressures across the entire supply chain. Therefore, importers are trending toward a more cautious approach when signing new orders.

Compliance and added value are the keys to safeguarding market share

Alongside shrimp and swimming crab, the tuna group and multiple other seafood commodities are also experiencing impacts from increasingly tight US control regulations. In particular, requirements related to the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) are becoming a major barrier to export activities.

US frozen tuna imports during the first months of 2026 declined across multiple supply sources, including Vietnam. According to VASEP, the cause does not stem entirely from market supply and demand, but primarily originates from increasingly strict compliance requirements.

For tuna, NOAA requires every frozen or processed tuna shipment imported into the US to possess a Form 370 confirming a “dolphin-safe” status, accompanied by full supporting documentation and submitted prior to or at the time of import. This program is applied to monitor the entire volume of frozen and processed tuna imported into the US.

This means that enterprises wishing to maintain exports must not only deliver quality products but also tightly control the entire chain of documentation, traceability, and legal certificates. Enterprises that satisfy these requirements well will secure plenty of opportunities to maintain orders and protect their market share in the US market.

According to Ms. Le Hang, looking from the latest developments, it is clear that the US is not closing its doors to Vietnamese seafood, but opportunities are polarizing strongly among product groups. With swimming crab, the advantage currently tilts toward Vietnam due to policy factors and a competitive supply source. Meanwhile, with shrimp, challenges still arrive from both trade defense duties and the weak purchasing power of the market.

In that context, the path of competing through prices is becoming increasingly difficult. Instead, enterprises need to concentrate on deeply processed product lines, value-added goods, convenient products, and segments capable of generating better profit margins.

For the swimming crab commodity, the current phase is regarded as a favorable timing to rapidly turn policy opportunities into concrete commercial contracts, expanding client networks and increasing presence in the US market before competitors readjust their supply sources.

Experts also recommend that swimming crab export enterprises need to proactively communicate with partners regarding the legality of their fisheries, gear codes, and raw material origin records. Meanwhile, shrimp export enterprises need to closely follow the developments of tax review periods, audit legal dossiers, tightly control pricing terms, and prioritize developing products with high processing content.

In the long run, the US remains a strategic market for Vietnamese seafood. However, this is no longer a market where enterprises can maintain growth relying solely on cheap price advantages. The capability to adapt to policies, select the right segments, and guarantee compliance with import requirements will dictate the competitive capacity of enterprises in the upcoming phase.

Opportunities still exist, but they will belong to enterprises that know how to invest in quality, documentation transparency, and building added value instead of merely racing on price.

Source: Tap chi Kinh te - Tai chinh