Vietnam’s seafood exports in the first four months of 2026 recorded positive recovery signals. However, behind this growth momentum lies an increasingly polarized market landscape across regions and key product categories, as businesses continue to face mounting pressures.

Exports have yet to achieve sustainable growth

According to a report by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam’s seafood exports in the first four months of 2026 continued to recover compared to the same period in 2025. Export turnover was estimated at approximately USD 3.7 billion, up around 14–15% year-on-year.

Within the product structure, shrimp remained the largest export category with export value reaching approximately USD 1.5 billion, up 15% and accounting for more than 40% of total seafood exports.

Growth in the shrimp sector was driven by recovery in several Asian markets, particularly demand for lobster and value-added processed products. However, Vietnam’s shrimp industry continues to face intense competition from Ecuador, India, and Indonesia due to significantly higher production costs.

Feed costs currently account for 55–65% of shrimp farming expenses, while inconsistent seed quality and uneven farming productivity across regions have also made Vietnamese shrimp less competitive in price-sensitive market segments.

Pangasius exports in the first four months of the year continued to grow, reaching approximately USD 734 million, up 19%. The product’s advantage lies in its affordable pricing amid continued global consumer spending restraint.

In addition to the Chinese market, pangasius still has room for expansion in ASEAN, the Middle East, and the EU. However, the industry remains under pressure regarding farming area standards, traceability requirements, and equivalent assessment programs imposed by the United States.

Meanwhile, tuna was the product group facing the greatest pressure, with exports declining approximately 6% to USD 286 million. Unstable raw material supply, high procurement costs, and increasingly stringent requirements related to legal fishing practices and traceability are weakening the competitiveness of tuna processing and export enterprises.

According to VASEP, seafood exports in the first four months of 2026 showed positive signals but were not yet truly sustainable. Growth momentum has begun to slow, particularly from April 2026 onward, due to rising logistics costs, price competition, technical barriers, tax policies, and new requirements related to certification, traceability, food safety, environmental protection, and sustainable development.

China continues to lead the market

The brightest highlight of Vietnam’s seafood exports during the first four months of the year was the China and Hong Kong market, with revenue exceeding USD 1 billion, up as much as 48% compared to the same period last year.

Products recording strong growth in this market included lobster, pangasius, crab, clams, scallops, and various fresh, live, and frozen seafood products. Strong recovery in consumer demand following the previous slowdown enabled Vietnamese businesses to capitalize on advantages in geographical proximity and faster delivery times. In particular, pangasius and reasonably priced seafood products are gaining advantages in China as consumers continue prioritizing affordability.

However, VASEP warned that the Chinese market is rapidly shifting toward official import channels while tightening controls on biosafety, traceability, farming area codes, and export enterprise registration. This requires Vietnamese businesses to quickly transition toward more professional and transparent export models if they wish to maintain long-term growth momentum.

In contrast to the strong growth in China, seafood exports to the United States during the first four months of the year declined approximately 6% to USD 498 million, causing the market to fall to the third-largest destination for Vietnamese seafood.

The primary reasons stem from the impact of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on shrimp, along with a series of new technical requirements such as the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), traceability programs, food safety controls, and mandatory Certificates of Analysis (CoA) for many wild-caught species implemented from the beginning of 2026.

According to VASEP, the United States remains a market with significant potential but also the highest policy risks at present. Enterprises are not only under pressure from compliance costs but also face the risk of trade defense investigations and requirements related to forced labor and child labor within supply chains.

In the EU market, exports recorded only modest growth of around 3%, reaching USD 352 million. Although the EVFTA continues to provide tariff advantages, the EU remains a market with exceptionally high requirements related to sustainability, environmental standards, and traceability.

In particular, the IUU “yellow card” continues to be a major bottleneck for wild-caught seafood products. New regulations concerning raw material origin verification, catch certification, and imported raw material controls have created difficulties for many businesses in completing export documentation for the EU market.

Expectations of surpassing USD 12 billion

With export turnover reaching USD 3.7 billion and double-digit growth recorded in the first four months of the year, VASEP forecasts that Vietnam’s seafood exports in 2026 could grow by approximately 8–10%, with total export value surpassing USD 12 billion if major markets maintain stable demand and bottlenecks related to procedures, logistics, and raw materials are resolved in a timely manner.

However, industry experts believe that the biggest challenge currently lies not only in expanding markets but also in enhancing adaptability to new standards related to sustainability, environmental protection, and supply chain transparency.

In the long term, the industry’s growth model will require significant transformation. Vietnam’s seafood sector can no longer rely primarily on increased output, market expansion, and processing outsourcing. Under the new market context, growth must instead be driven by productivity, technology, deep processing, value-added products, brand building, digital traceability, green production, and sustainable development.

As global competition becomes increasingly intense, Vietnam’s seafood industry is facing growing pressure to shift from price-based competition toward competition based on quality, deep processing technology, and traceability capabilities. These factors will determine the industry’s ability to maintain market share in key export destinations while expanding into new potential markets in the coming years.

Source: Tap chi Thuy san Viet Nam