Vietnam's seafood exports continued maintaining growth momentum during the first 7 months of 2026, with turnover reaching nearly 6.78 billion USD, up 11.5% compared to the same period last year. However, prospects for the remaining months of the year are forecasted to face greater pressure as new US tax policies begin asserting their impacts, while technical requirements across multiple markets become increasingly stringent...

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood exports reached nearly 1.02 billion USD in July 2026, up 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025. This continues as a month with turnover surpassing the 1 billion USD mark, consolidating prospects that the seafood sector can fulfill its target of exporting over 12 billion USD this year.

SHRIMP GROWS STRONGLY, PANGASIUS DECELERATES

In the overall performance of the entire sector, shrimp remains the largest export commodity item, reaching nearly 2.78 billion USD after 7 months, up 12.6% and occupying approximately 41% of the total industry turnover. In July alone, shrimp exports reached over 428 million USD, up 4.5%.

However, the growth rate during the month slowed down significantly relative to the speed of the entire first 7-month period. According to VASEP, growth momentum currently stems primarily from lobster exported to China, whereas vannamei and black tiger shrimp continue bearing competitive pressures in traditional markets like the United States, the European Union (EU), and Japan.

Following the decision by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on July 23, Vietnamese seafood belongs to the group bearing Section 301 tariffs at a 12.5% rate, higher than the 10% rate applied to Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and several other competitors. This margin, though merely 2.5 percentage points, can significantly affect frozen shrimp contracts that inherently carry low profit margins.

For pangasius, July export turnover reached nearly 184 million USD, down 6.1% compared to the same period. Even so, cumulative 7-month figures reached nearly 1.3 billion USD, up 8.8%. The monthly decline reflects multiple major markets adjusting demand following a period of strong import activity in the first half of the year. China reduced purchases of certain large-size fish products, while the US market has not clearly recovered.

Nevertheless, VASEP evaluates that pangasius still retains opportunities to expand market share in the EU as prices for whitefish species such as Atlantic cod, haddock, and Alaska pollock remain at high levels due to limited supply. This compels many processors to consider using pangasius and tilapia for processed products.

However, to capitalize on this opportunity, enterprises must satisfy requirements regarding sustainability certifications, origin traceability, stable quality, and long-term supply capacity. Additionally, since the beginning of 2026, EU importers have mandatorily utilized the CATCH system (a digitized import seafood certification system) to manage documentation for caught seafood, making dossier requirements increasingly strict.

TUNA EXPORTS BEAR HEAVY PRESSURES

Tuna exports in July 2026 reached over 69 million USD, remaining virtually flat compared to the same period last year; cumulatively for 7 months, exports reached nearly 524 million USD, down 1.4%. According to VASEP, the strong increase in June was primarily due to enterprises accelerating deliveries prior to the effective date of the new US tax policy. Entering July, turnover returned to a stable state.

This is also the commodity sector bearing the greatest impacts from new US policies. Beside Section 301 tariffs, enterprises must satisfy regulations under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Vietnam has not yet achieved comparability recognition for certain fisheries, causing many shipments to require supplementary Certificates of Admissibility (COA). Therefore, enterprises must strictly control raw material origins, harvesting zones, fishing gear, and all related documentation to prevent risks of goods being detained for inspection.

In addition, tuna exported to the EU continues bearing pressure from IUU "yellow card" warnings, the CATCH system, and rules of origin under the EVFTA. Consequently, VASEP considers that tuna exports in the final months of the year are unlikely to experience strong growth.

Within the seafood group, swimming crabs and other crustaceans stood out as bright spots, reaching over 41 million USD in July 2026, up by 51.1%; cumulatively for 7 months, exports reached nearly 246 million USD, up 28.7% compared to the same period last year. Mollusk exports also reached over 178 million USD after 7 months, up nearly 30%.

According to VASEP, these results received significant contributions from the US market after NOAA restored comparability recognition for Vietnam's swimming crab fishery starting May 2026. However, enterprises must still fully comply with regulations on COA certifications and origin traceability.

Meanwhile, cephalopod exports such as squid and octopus decreased slightly in July due to rising raw material prices and slowing demand in a number of Asian markets.

THE CHINESE MARKET SERVES AS GROWTH MOMENTUM

China and Hong Kong continue as the largest export markets for Vietnamese seafood, with turnover exceeding 267 million USD in July, up 24.7%; cumulatively for the first 7 months of 2026, exports reached nearly 1.74 billion USD, up by 34.5% compared to the same period last year. "The majority of overall industry growth originates from this market, thanks to demand for lobster, vannamei shrimp, pangasius, swimming crab, and multiple other seafood items," VASEP noted.

Meanwhile, the United States reached over 1.05 USD billion after 7 months, up 0.3%. Japan maintained stable growth, while CPTPP countries reached over 1.78 billion USD, up 8.1%.

Conversely, exports to the EU fell 2.7% after 7 months; South Korea fell over 10% in July; ASEAN fell 6%; and the Middle East fell 16%.

VASEP noted that beside declining demand factors, the EU mandatorily applying the CATCH system since early 2026 also increases risks of clearance delays if harvesting dossiers, product codes, or shipment data lack consistency.

VASEP evaluates that the full-year export target exceeding 12 billion USD in 2026 remains feasible, yet growth rates in remaining months may stand significantly lower than the current 11.5% level.

The factor exerting the greatest impact is the US Section 301 tariff. Accordingly, many new contracts may need to be renegotiated as importers demand price reductions, tax cost-sharing, or sign short-term contracts only. Vietnam bearing higher tariff rates relative to several competing nations like Ecuador, India, and Indonesia also causes many products—especially vannamei shrimp, canned tuna, and standard frozen goods—to lose competitive advantages.

Even so, VASEP considers that positive factors remain. Vietnam issued regulations prohibiting the import of goods produced using forced labor, taking effect from early September 2026. This is viewed as a foundation to continue exchanges with the United States regarding trade issues.

Source: VnEconomy