Seafood exports in the first 5 months of 2026 reached 4.65 billion USD, marking a 10.6% increase compared to the same period last year. However, behind this positive growth performance lies a distinct polarization among product groups within the US market, as swimming crab embraces opportunities to expand its market share, while shrimp and tuna continue to confront multiple trade barriers and increasingly stringent compliance requirements.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) noted that the most positive development in May 2026 was the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) equivalence recognition for Vietnam's swimming crab fisheries. Thanks to this, swimming crab and products from these fisheries continue to be permitted for import into the US.

SWIMMING CRAB WELCOMES MAJOR OPPORTUNITIES IN THE US MARKET

Notably, while Vietnam achieved equivalence recognition, the Philippines failed to obtain recognition for its related swimming crab fisheries and will be blocked from importing starting June 11, 2026. This opens up a substantial short-term opportunity for Vietnamese swimming crab as US importers must redirect orders toward accepted supply sources like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka.

Experts deem this a favorable timing for Vietnamese enterprises to accelerate contract signings for the third quarter of 2026, while simultaneously strengthening communication with US partners regarding the legality of raw material sources, gear codes, and traceability records.

In stark contrast to swimming crab, shrimp remains the commodity confronting the greatest hardships in the US market. Preliminary results of the 20th administrative review published by the US Department of Commerce on May 13, 2026, revealed that the preliminary anti-dumping duty rates for the two mandatory respondents stood at 10.76% and 6.30%, respectively, while enterprises entitled to a separate rate face a duty of 7.56%.

Although these are not yet the final results, the tax rates have injected added pressure into price negotiations and the purchasing sentiment of US importers. This dynamic shows that market demand has not recovered strongly enough to absorb cost and price pressures, prompting importers to remain cautious with new orders.

For tuna and several other captured seafood commodities, current difficulties do not lie in supply and demand, but originate primarily from US regulatory controls.

According to NOAA, every frozen or processed tuna shipment imported into the US must possess a Form 370, declaring a “dolphin-safe” status accompanied by full supporting documentation. This regulation is enforced under the framework of the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). Therefore, the capacity to maintain orders and market share relies heavily on enterprises' proficiency in document management, traceability, and technical compliance.

Evaluating seafood export performance in the first 5 months, Mr. Nguyen Hoai Nam, Deputy Secretary-General of VASEP, stated that while the US and the European Union (EU) are recovering slowly, China is becoming the most vital growth driver, contributing over 70% of the incremental growth for Vietnam's entire seafood sector over the past period.

“Vietnam's seafood processing capacity currently ranks among the top in the world, particularly in the value-added product segment. This serves as an important competitive edge compared to major exporting nations like Ecuador or India,” Mr. Nam emphasized.

THREE SETS OF RECOMMENDATIONS TO ACHIEVE THE 12 BILLION USD TARGET IN 2026

In early May 2026, VASEP submitted a report to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development synthesizing 15 major challenges hitting the seafood industry, encompassing both external hardships and domestic shortcomings. According to Mr. Nam, a prominent issue is that paperwork procedures serving exports to the US and the EU still encounter numerous bottlenecks. Alongside these are anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations, US equivalence evaluation programs, and deficiencies related to tax policies.

According to enterprise feedback, a new regulation in the Law on Value Added Tax, which took effect on July 1, 2025, requires enterprises to pay taxes immediately upon the departure of export goods from ports. Meanwhile, tax refunds remain slow and face various difficulties, intensifying capital pressures on businesses.

Another issue is the shrimp quota within the Vietnam - Korea Free Trade Agreement (VKFTA). The quota of 15,000 tons per year applied since 2015 is no longer appropriate now that Vietnam's shrimp export capacity has expanded four to fivefold. According to enterprises, to utilize the quota, South Korean importers must participate in bidding with costs ranging from 16% to 18% of the shipment value—nearly equivalent to standard tariff rates.

Furthermore, the seafood sector is confronting an array of escalating tariff and non-tariff barriers, such as countervailing and anti-dumping duty investigations, allegations related to forced labor, the US MMPA regulation, or the EU's IUU "yellow card" warning.

To successfully complete the export target of over 12 billion USD in 2026, VASEP proposes three core sets of solutions:

First: Institutional and business environment reform. Shift decisively from pre-inspection to post-inspection mechanisms, applying management driven by risks and enterprises' compliance history to diminish administrative procedure durations and costs.

Second: Concentrating on raw material source development for export processing. Expand farming zones, invest in infrastructure, upgrade breeding and feed quality, and drive down production costs. Concurrently, it is critical to review marine capture zoning, invest in additional standard-compliant fishing ports, and support sustainable harvesting to safeguard raw material supplies.

Mr. Nam emphasized: "Developing science and technology alongside accelerating the production of value-added products represents an irreversible trend. Vietnam's seafood industry can no longer compete using volume or cheap prices, but must elevate the value per product unit through deep processing and fulfilling green, sustainable standards."

Third: Market diplomacy and trade defense. VASEP requests the Government along with ministries and sectors—such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade—to continue accelerating market operations and international trade defense, contributing to untangling tariff and non-tariff barriers while protecting the legitimate rights of Vietnamese seafood enterprises in the global market.

Source: VnEconomy