VASEP forecasts that seafood exports in the first half of 2024 will reach 4.4 billion USD, up 6% over the same period in 2023. It is expected that after the second quarter, inventory problems and transportation difficulties will reduce; Demand will recover and prices will increase again in the third quarter, which is a time of high demand for the year-end Tet holiday.

VASEP forecasts that seafood exports in the first half of 2024 will reach 4.4 billion USD, up 6% over the same period in 2023.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in the first 5 months of this year, the country's seafood exports reached nearly 3.6 billion USD, up 6% over the same period in 2023.

Among the main products, there are squid, octopus and other types of fish (sea fish, freshwater fish) with lower export value compared to the same period last year, down 1% and 3% respectively.

Shrimp and pangasius exports increased slightly, up 7% and 4% respectively, while crab exports increased the most (+84%), tuna also increased positively (+22%); Shellfish exports increased by 13%.

Among the top 4 markets, only the US showed more positive signs with 7% growth, while exports to China, Japan and the EU were almost equivalent to the same period last year; Exports to Korea increased slightly by 2%.

"The slow and cautious recovery of markets, competitive pressure on export prices and supply along with difficulties in domestic production and processing such as increased input costs; raw material shortages...It is and will continue to impact Vietnam's seafood exports in 2024," VASEP assessed.

According to VASEP, the world's vital shipping routes from the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden are heavily affected by the escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. For some time now, the Mandab Strait - one of the busiest maritime routes in the world with the capacity to handle about 15% of global maritime trade value - has been significantly disrupted; due to attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in recent times. The majority of cargo ships still avoid moving into the Red Sea area, with the number of daily movements down by two-thirds compared to the same period last year.

In addition, the amount of seafood inventory in markets, including items such as shrimp, fish, and surimi, is still a major obstacle to the strategies of seafood importers this year.

The release of inventory also puts more competitive pressure on prices for newly imported goods. For example, in Japan nationwide shrimp inventories reached a ceiling of 65,654 tons in November 2022 and then gradually decreased to 48,123 tons in 2023. As of the end of 2023, total inventories reached 47,218 tons.

However, VASEP forecasts that seafood exports in the first half of 2024 will reach 4.4 billion USD, up 6% over the same period in 2023. It is expected that after the second quarter, inventory problems and transportation difficulties will ease, demand will recover and prices will increase again in the third quarter, which is a time of high demand for the year-end Tet holiday.

Source: VNBUSINESS