In 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports will overcome many difficulties and challenges in terms of raw material sources, reduced demand, increased competition, and increased market barriers. The export result of over 10 billion USD demonstrates the efforts and joint efforts of the entire seafood industry to achieve the above results.

This figure does not include more than 250 million USD from fishmeal exports, an important source of raw materials for the animal feed industry.

The shrimp industry has achieved an export turnover of nearly 3.9 billion USD, an increase of 15% compared to 2023, although the world shrimp consumption market is affected by inflation and fierce competition from major producing countries such as India, Ecuador, Indonesia. However, thanks to the strategy of focusing on the strength of value-added products and diversifying product segments (whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp, lobster, sea shrimp, etc.), the Vietnamese shrimp industry has maintained its competitiveness and stable development.

The pangasius industry, despite facing difficulties such as increased shipping costs and slow recovery of import prices, still returned to the 2 billion USD mark in 2024, an increase of 9% compared to the previous year. Traditional markets such as the US, Brazil, Colombia and CPTPP countries have become important driving forces to help the pangasius industry recover.

Meanwhile, the export of exploited seafood (tuna, crab, squid, octopus, shellfish and other marine fish) has also recorded success with a turnover of more than 4 billion USD, despite many difficulties in raw material sources and IUU regulations that must be complied with.

In 2025, seafood exports are expected to continue to grow better, possibly surpassing the 10 billion USD mark to return to the 11 billion USD mark of 2022. However, 2025 is also the year the seafood industry will face many opportunities and challenges.

1. Opportunity

Economic recovery, consumption and import demand tend to be more positive

Many major economies such as the US, China and the European Union (EU) have recorded a recovery in 2024, although the growth rate is clearly differentiated between countries. The global seafood market, especially large markets such as the US, EU, Japan and China, will continue to maintain high demand. Markets such as Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East may also expand, creating opportunities for high-quality seafood products from Vietnam.

Free Trade Agreements (FTAs):

Vietnam has signed 16 free trade agreements and is negotiating 3 more. New generation agreements, especially the EVFTA (with the EU) and CPTPP, help reduce export taxes, increase market access and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood, especially in the context of the global economy still being restrained by geopolitical instability.

The trend of shifting to exporting value-added products:

Developing value-added seafood products is not only a trend but also an important strategy for the Vietnamese seafood industry to expand and maintain its position in the markets.

In particular, the trend of producing by-products from seafood raw materials brings opportunities to increase value for the seafood industry, implement circular economy criteria, reduce environmental impact, etc.

New US tax policy

If the US increases tariffs on seafood products from rival countries such as China, this could create opportunities for Vietnamese seafood products to replace them, especially when the quality of Vietnamese seafood is highly appreciated and the prices are more competitive. The US market could look to Vietnam as an alternative source of supply when products from countries affected by higher tariffs are affected.

The US's increased tax policy in 2025 will have a major impact on the Vietnamese seafood industry, but Vietnamese businesses will also face many major challenges such as increased export costs and the risk of being subject to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy taxes.

2. Challenge

Climate change: Climate change will affect the development of aquatic resources, especially aquaculture. Rising sea levels, changes in temperature and polluted water sources can cause difficulties in the production of aquatic raw materials, and the risk of disease will reduce the supply and quality of raw materials.

Increased competition from other countries: Major aquatic producing countries such as India, Thailand, China and Ecuador are also making efforts to increase the output and quality of aquatic products for export. This creates fierce competition in terms of price and product quality for Vietnamese aquatic products.

Factors such as increased prices of animal feed, fuel, and transportation costs can affect the cost of aquatic production. This will reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese products in the international market.

Trade wars and market barriers:

Trade wars between major powers, especially between the US and China, can cause major disruptions in the global supply chain. This can lead to changes in input material prices and transportation costs, thereby affecting export prices and the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood in the international market.

IUU yellow cards, trade protection measures such as anti-dumping, anti-subsidy or strict regulations on quality and environment can increase costs, reduce supply, and reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood exporting enterprises.

In addition, geopolitical fluctuations can significantly affect Vietnam's seafood trade, as the seafood industry plays an important role in exports and the national economy. Geopolitical factors can impact in many different ways, from changes in trade policy to regional tensions that can affect the supply chain.

Source: VASEP