Seafood exports maintained growth momentum in the first 7 months of the year, but are forecasted to slow down in the final months due to the impacts of new tax policies from the United States.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's seafood exports in July 2026 reached nearly 1.02 billion USD, up 4.8% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first 7 months of the year, turnover reached nearly 6.8 billion USD, an 11.5% increase.

Within which, shrimp continued as the primary export commodity item with turnover reaching 2.78 billion USD, up 12.6% and occupying approximately 41% of total seafood export value. Pangasius reached nearly 1.3 billion USD, up 8.8%; tuna reached nearly 524 million USD, down 1.4%; swimming crab, crabs, and other crustaceans reached nearly 246 million USD, up 28.7%; bivalve mollusks reached over 178 million USD, up 29.5%.

Regarding markets, China and Hong Kong continued as the largest destinations for Vietnamese seafood with import turnover of nearly 1.74 billion USD, up 34.5% compared to the same period.

The United States remained the second largest export market for Vietnamese seafood with cumulative turnover exceeding 1.05 billion USD, up merely 0.3% compared to the previous year. However, this growth rate has not yet fully reflected the impact of Section 301 tariffs announced by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on July 23. According to VASEP, the influence of the new tax policy will manifest more clearly for shipments clearing customs from late July onward.

Ms. Le Hang, Deputy Secretary-General of VASEP, evaluated that the export scenario exceeding 12 billion USD remains feasible following the results of nearly 6.78 billion USD achieved in the first 7 months of the year. However, growth in the remaining months may stand significantly lower than the current 11.5% level. The factor exerting the most direct impact is the US Section 301 tariff. The 12.5% rate applied to Vietnam generates 3 specific consequences:

First, new contracts with the United States will be renegotiated. Importers may demand FOB price reductions, tax cost-sharing, or enter into short-term contracts only.

Second, Vietnam faces disadvantages relative to Ecuador, India, and Indonesia, which bear a 10% rate. This margin is particularly crucial for vannamei shrimp, canned tuna, and standard frozen products.

Third, the new tax is compounded with MFN duties, anti-dumping, and countervailing duties where applicable. Consequently, purchasing decisions will increasingly be made on an enterprise-by-enterprise and product-code basis, rather than generalized country-level comparisons.

On a positive note, the Government recently issued Decree No. 292/2026/ND-CP officially supplementing regulations prohibiting the importation of products and goods harvested, produced, or manufactured wholly or in part by forced labor, taking effect from September 5, 2026. According to VASEP, this serves as a foundation for Vietnam to engage in further discussions with the United States, though in the short term, no official information indicates the 12.5% tariff rate will be adjusted immediately.

The positive outcomes in the first 7 months of the year establish a favorable foundation for the seafood sector to head toward its target of exporting over 12 billion USD in 2026. However, against a backdrop where global trade policies continue to fluctuate, growth room will depend increasingly on enterprise adaptability, market expansion efficiency, product value elevation, and the competitive strength of each commodity sector. These will serve as decisive factors for Vietnamese seafood to maintain sustainable growth momentum in the final months of the year and subsequent years.

Source: Bao Nong nghiep va Moi truong