Persistent fluctuations across the global rice market pulled Vietnam’s rice exports down year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Nevertheless, recovering export prices alongside supply-demand shifts in major buying markets are creating fresh openings for the sector to accelerate toward the end of the year.

Expanding headroom for Vietnamese rice

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, rice exports surpassed 6 million tons in the first eight months of 2026, generating nearly USD 2.91 billion in turnover, down 5% in volume and 10.7% in value compared to the same period last year.

Notably, average export prices in July 2026 reached USD 511 per ton, marking the first year-on-year increase of the year with a 5.8% gain. This movement is seen as a positive sign that price benchmarks are shifting in a more favorable direction.

For the entirety of 2026, Vietnam’s total rice export turnover is forecast to reach approximately USD 3.94 billion, down 4% compared to 2025. This contraction stems primarily from subdued export price levels during the early months of the year. However, the price recovery momentum since July could help bolster export revenue through the remainder of the year.

The international market is also showing several supportive drivers. The global rice supply-demand balance for the 2026/2027 crop year is projected to tilt into deficit, while international rice trade remains robust. Forecasts indicate that the Philippines—Vietnam's primary rice buyer—will maintain steady import demand for reserve stockpiling. China is also ramping up purchases, particularly for broken rice to supply its animal feed sector. Several African markets continue to offer headroom for exporting nations.

However, opportunities come hand in hand with headwinds. The Philippines is reviewing trade defense measures against imported rice, while Indonesia has mapped out no import plans for 2026 due to abundant domestic supplies and high reserves.

In China, rice imports have posted breakthrough volume growth, particularly for broken rice used as animal feed raw materials. This represents notable headroom for Vietnamese raw and broken rice.

Nigeria is projected to face a shortfall of around 3.5 million tons of rice in the 2026–2027 crop year, creating further openings for Vietnam if it can enhance price competitiveness. Meanwhile, Kenya has waived import tariffs on white rice under tariff-rate quotas through the end of November 2026.

Refining policy, stabilizing supply chains

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment advises enterprises to closely track global supply-demand developments, particularly import policies across key markets and weather patterns in major producing countries. The Ministry also identifies proactive production regulation, rice quality upgrades, and market diversification as pivotal solutions to sustaining growth momentum.

For its part, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is finalizing a policy framework to enhance the governance of rice export activities. A key addition is the introduction of a trader creditworthiness and reliability assessment mechanism in the draft decree amending the Government’s Decree No. 107/2018/NĐ-CP, thereby incentivizing enterprises to elevate competitiveness, build brands, and foster sustainable rice value chains.

Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade), noted that after nearly eight years of implementing Decree No. 107/2018/NĐ-CP, rice export operations have achieved numerous positive results. However, practical realities necessitate an objective appraisal mechanism regarding traders' capacities and compliance track records to aid state management, select enterprises for key sector assignments, and incentivize corporate investments in farming zones, storage systems, logistics, and the Vietnamese rice brand.

The reliability assessment is not intended to introduce additional business hurdles, but rather serves as a transparent regulatory tool to encourage fair competition and sustainable growth.

From an industry perspective, Nguyen Thanh Binh, a representative of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), stated that to help the rice sector contribute more effectively to national export growth targets, the VFA has submitted several recommendations to the Government and relevant ministries.

First, the Association urged the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment to maintain close coordination in negotiating rice protocols with importing destinations, while advancing value-chain-aligned technical discussions to satisfy the requirements of high-potential, high-value markets.

In tandem with market expansion, the VFA proposed that the Ministry of Industry and Trade continue facilitating government-to-government (G2G) contracts with key rice-importing markets to secure stable off-take channels for businesses.

Among the standout proposals, the VFA requested approval to take part in building a national rice brand. Accordingly, the Association plans to pilot a regional rice branding model for the Mekong Delta featuring ST24 and ST25 cultivars tied to the cultural heritage of Oc Eo, while establishing export-standard farming zones tailored for the EU and Japan via cooperative-enterprise partnerships under state oversight.

Additionally, the Vietnam Food Association proposed that the Government greenlight a Master Plan to restructure the rice export business sector in alignment with the Strategy for the Development of Vietnam’s Rice Export Markets to 2030. According to the Association, restructuring will help raise value addition, build sustainable brands, bolster competitiveness, and lay the foundation for the rice industry to drive double-digit export growth in the years ahead.

Source: Tap chi Doanh nghiep va Thuong hieu nong thon