In the first 6 months of 2026, rice exports increased in output volume. The prospects for the coming period are projected to be positive thanks to rising import demand and the risk of a global supply shortage.

Exports increase in volume but face downward price pressure

According to a report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development responding to the Ministry of Finance to serve the Quarter II/2026 meeting of the Price Management Steering Committee, the domestic rice production situation generally maintained stability in the first half of the year.

Up to the end of May 2026, the entire country sowed approximately 2.93 million hectares of Winter-Spring rice, a decrease of 1.3% compared to the same period last year. However, productivity was still slightly improved when the harvested area reached around 2.2 million hectares, up 0.04%, with output reaching 15.2 million tons, an increase of 0.2% compared to the same period in 2025.

Taking the period up to June 2026 as a whole, the total sown rice area of the entire country is estimated to reach 4.57 million hectares, down 3.7% compared to the same period. Within this, Winter-Spring rice reached 2.93 million hectares, while Summer-Autumn rice reached 1.64 million hectares, dropping by up to 7.8% compared to the previous year. This development reflects the trend of contracting areas in a number of localities due to rising input costs and crop structure conversion.

On the export side, the first 6 months of 2026 recorded a bright spot when Vietnam exported approximately 5 million tons of rice, pulling in 2.36 billion USD. Compared to the same period in 2025, the output volume increased by 5.7% but the value decreased by 3.3%, because the average export price dropped to around 473.6 USD/ton, a decrease of 8.6%.

According to evaluations by the agricultural sector, the fact that export value decreased while output volume increased demonstrates that competitive pressure on prices in the international market is intensifying. Large exporting nations continue to compete strongly on prices against a backdrop where global supply fluctuates and logistics costs are not truly stable.

In the domestic market, rice prices in the first 6 months were generally stable, at times increasing or decreasing locally according to each variety and locality. The price of 5% broken raw material rice rose strongly compared to the end of 2025, while a number of popular rice types and 25% broken rice fluctuated slightly or decreased. This divergence reflects supply-demand characteristics across each segment and each production region.

Positive prospects thanks to rising import demand

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development assessed that the domestic rice market over the past period maintained a relatively stable state. After the Winter-Spring crop season, farmers in the Mekong Delta entered the phase of caring for and early harvesting the Summer-Autumn crop, causing fresh rice transactions to slow down and prices to fluctuate little.

However, the notable point is that the rice import demand from large markets continues to increase, particularly in the Philippines, a nation facing pressure to guarantee food security against a backdrop where domestic output bears weather risks. This is viewed as a vital factor helping to maintain demand strength for Vietnamese rice in the coming period.

In the world market, according to evaluations by the FAO, Asian rice prices in May and the second quarter of 2026 maintained an upward trend due to high input costs and tightened supply across many large producing nations. A number of markets such as Thailand and Vietnam recorded price increases thanks to rising import demand, while India still maintained lower price levels due to large inventory volumes.

Besides, the USDA put forward a notable projection arguing that global rice consumption in the 2026–2027 crop season could exceed output by approximately 3.36 million tons. Specifically, global output is expected to decrease while consumption continues to rise to record levels, pulling along the risk of a supply shortage and having to rely on inventories to balance.

This development is evaluated by experts as a vital supporting factor for the recovery trend of world rice prices in the medium and long term. Against that backdrop, large exporting nations, including Vietnam, are expected to benefit if they maintain stable supply capacities and goods quality.

Meanwhile, according to the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnam's export rice prices recently have shown signs of slight improvement across a number of varieties, reflecting stable demand from traditional markets. However, competitive pressure on prices still exists as many large exporting nations continue to adjust policies to retain market shares.

In a context of global market fluctuations, the Vietnamese rice sector is evaluated to be standing before both opportunities and challenges intertwining. On one hand, rising import demand in Asian and African nations opens up larger export space. On the other hand, geopolitical fluctuations, logistics costs, and extreme weather remain unpredictable risk factors.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development emphasized that it is necessary to continue closely monitoring global supply-demand developments, particularly the import policies of key markets and weather conditions in large producing nations. Proactively regulating production, raising rice quality, and diversifying markets are considered key solutions to maintain a sustainable growth momentum.

Experts also argued that, against a backdrop where international prices possess a tendency to fluctuate according to short-term cycles, enterprises need to be more flexible in signing contracts, while concurrently upgrading market forecasting capacities to utilize favorable price timings well.

The Vietnamese rice sector is entering a phase of both domestic stabilization and opening up positive prospects in the international market. If utilizing the global supply shortage trend well and maintaining competitive advantages, Vietnam can continue to firmly maintain its position within the group of leading rice exporting nations in the world in the coming period.

Source: Bao Cong Thuong