Since mid-August, the price of commercial shrimp in the Mekong Delta has increased quite strongly. The reason is partly due to the decrease in supply, the small number of farmers in the crop and the disease in shrimp.

After increasing in the first 2 months of the 4th quarter, shrimp prices are forecast to continue to increase

Shrimp farming output decreased due to harsh weather and high input costs for shrimp farming. Raw shrimp production from major producing countries in the world encountered many problems, causing output to decrease, which also contributed to higher demand for Vietnamese shrimp.

Raw shrimp prices increased sharply in October and continued to increase in November. This year's raw shrimp supply decreased significantly, the season was shorter than last year.

Inventories at factories also decreased due to a combination of high export demand and low raw material supply. To maintain purchasing activities and meet export orders, large processing factories had to increase purchasing prices.

Notably, the price of 50 shrimp/kg at the pond increased the most in October, up 6%. Both factories and traders shifted their focus to small shrimp due to scarcity and high prices of large shrimp.

Prices have increased significantly, especially for the 50 count/kg, which has increased by about 30% since week 35, to VND155,000 ($6.10)/kg in mid-November. This is the first time the 50 count has reached $6/kg since late 2021. Prices for 100 count shrimp harvested in Dong Thap province were VND85,000-90,000/kg in the week ending November 14. These shrimp prices were quite stable at VND85,000-88,000/kg in early October.

Black tiger shrimp prices increased slightly in most sizes.

Prices of black tiger shrimp of all sizes have increased since around the first week of October. Prices for the largest sizes have increased, reaching levels similar to those from early 2024, while prices for smaller sizes – 40, 50 and 60 count – have remained as high as those from early 2023.

Purchasing of raw black tiger shrimp by processing plants has decreased significantly in October due to limited supply.

Supplies of large sizes, 20 and 30 count, have decreased, leading to higher prices and reduced trading activity. Traders have shifted their focus to smaller sizes, especially 40-50 count. As a result, farmgate prices for 40 count shrimp have increased the most (4%), followed by 50 count (2%) and 80-100 count (1%). In contrast, farmgate prices for 20-30 count shrimp have remained stable.

Whiteleg shrimp exports up 30% in October

In October, whiteleg shrimp exports increased again to 35,350 tons, up 47% compared to September and up 30% compared to October 2023.

Exports to all major markets increased sharply, including the United States (51%), Japan (74%), China and Hong Kong (33%), the EU (52%), South Korea (85%) and the United Kingdom (4%).

The United States is the leading whiteleg shrimp market, accounting for 21% of Vietnam's total whiteleg shrimp export volume.

The average export price of all whiteleg shrimp products sold to the market continued to increase, up 1% compared to September to USD 8.32/kg.

Black tiger shrimp exports up 4% in October

October also saw a recovery in black tiger shrimp exports from Vietnam, up 19% from September and 4% year-on-year to 3,591 tonnes.

The export growth was mainly driven by significant increases to Japan (48%), South Korea (59%) and the UK (39%). In contrast, other major markets, including China and Hong Kong (1%) and the EU (1%), saw only modest growth, while the US saw a 4% decline in imports.

In Asian countries, especially India, many shrimp farmers are considering switching to black tiger shrimp farming due to persistently low whiteleg shrimp prices over the past two years. This change in production patterns, especially in India, is likely to increase competitive pressure on Vietnamese exporters in the global market in the future.

The average export price of black tiger shrimp to all markets increased by 3% compared to September, reaching 11.64 USD/kg.

Given the current situation of raw shrimp, the supply will remain in short supply until the end of the first quarter of next year. During this period, processing enterprises face great challenges, because they have to buy raw shrimp at high prices but the price of finished shrimp consumed must compete fiercely with cheaper shrimp from many countries, leading to a decrease in production and business efficiency.

Hopefully, in 2025, the weather will be more favorable for shrimp farming, soon improving the supply of raw shrimp.

Source: VASEP