Pangasius exports in the first seven months of 2026 reached approximately USD 1.3 billion, but the US market slumped nearly 14% over eight months under the compounding burden of tariffs and weak consumer demand.

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's pangasius exports in the first seven months of 2026 totaled around USD 1.3 billion, up 10% compared to the same period in 2025. Although overall growth momentum was preserved thanks to breakthroughs in the Chinese market (reaching USD 357 million, up 31%) and the CPTPP bloc (reaching USD 196 million in the first six months, up 15%), the export picture in the United States deteriorated markedly.

Pangasius export turnover to the US in the first seven months reached USD 189 million, down 8% year-on-year. Over the full eight-month stretch, export value to this market fell nearly 14%, with August 2026 alone witnessing a severe plunge of over 50%.

The foremost challenge confronting businesses in the US market today is the compounding pressure of "stacked tariffs," which dramatically inflates the landed cost of bringing goods into the country. Following the expiration of the 150-day temporary 10% import surcharge (applied from February 24, 2026), Vietnamese goods exported to the US have been subject to an additional 12.5% tariff under Section 301 investigation actions since July 24, 2026. This tariff applies concurrently with and stacks on top of anti-dumping duties.

On August 12, 2026, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) issued the final results of its 21st administrative review (POR21), determining duty rates of USD 1.00/kg for Bien Dong Seafood; USD 0.38/kg for NTSF; USD 0.84/kg for Can Tho Seafood Import Export Joint Stock Company and Nam Viet Corporation; and maintaining the Vietnam-wide entity rate at USD 2.39/kg.

Alongside existing tariff pressures, VASEP noted that protectionist tendencies favoring the domestic US catfish industry show signs of intensifying sharply. Most notable is the introduction of the draft Domestic Market Restoration Act of 2026 (bill S.4945). Although not yet enacted into law, this bill proposes an annual tariff-rate quota of 84 million kilograms on catfish imported from Vietnam under HS code 0304.62.00.

Under the proposal, in-quota shipments would face a 50% tariff, while out-of-quota volumes could be hit with punitive duties of up to 200%. If enacted, these measures would severely cripple the price competitiveness of Vietnam's traditional frozen fillet lines.

The commercial landscape has been further strained as US consumer market absorption has entered a downcycle. In August 2026, US fresh seafood retail sales dropped more than 7% year-on-year; frozen seafood also fell over 7% in sales value and over 8% in volume. Pinched by weak purchasing power, US retailers and importers are unable to pass increased tariff costs onto retail consumers, ratcheting up downward pricing pressure on Vietnamese exporters.

Furthermore, while Vietnam has achieved recognized equivalency for its oversight system, consignments must still undergo document reviews, visual inspections, and sampling by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) at designated official import inspection facilities, incurring added demurrage, warehousing costs, and clearance delays.

The compounding impact of supplemental import tariffs, anti-dumping duties, rising protectionism, and sluggish consumer demand makes defending market share in the US extraordinarily difficult, particularly for enterprises saddled with elevated duty margins or dependent on low-cost frozen fillets.

Against this backdrop, headwinds from the US market underscore an urgent imperative for the entire pangasius industry to restructure its value chain, enforce strict technical compliance, and accelerate diversification into alternative high-potential markets to mitigate trade exposure.

Source: Bao Nong nghiep va Moi truong