According to the latest data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), pangasius exports to the US are facing a dual challenge as purchasing power declines sharply and POR21 anti-dumping duties increase significantly. In this context, swiftly restructuring cost chains and diversifying export markets through FTAs are considered key solutions for enterprises.

Dual pressure from consumption markets and POR21 tariff barriers

Statistics from VASEP indicate that, for the first 7 months of 2026 combined, Vietnam's pangasius export turnover to the US reached 189 million USD, down 8% compared to the same period last year. Notably, in July alone, export turnover reached only 22 million USD, a steep drop of 28%. This development reflects the extremely cautious sentiment of US importers, as they proactively cut long-term orders and maintain inventory at minimal levels to avoid risks from policy fluctuations.

Difficulties for this commodity sector intensified further when the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially announced the final results of the 21st administrative review (POR21), with anti-dumping duties adjusted upward substantially compared to the preliminary determination. Specifically, the duty imposed on Bien Dong Seafood Joint Stock Company increased from 0.29 to 1.00 USD/kg; NTSF Seafood Joint Stock Company rose from 0.07 to 0.38 USD/kg; while CASEAMEX and NAVICO both recorded increases from 0.23 to 0.84 USD/kg.

For enterprises not eligible for separate rates, the country-wide duty rate applied is up to 2.39 USD/kg. This abrupt upward tax adjustment pushes product costs higher, directly eroding profit margins and diminishing the competitive capacity of Vietnamese pangasius against substitutes such as tilapia or Alaska pollock.

This impact is clearly reflected on US retail shelves, where Vietnamese pangasius must compete directly on price against alternative products. In a scenario where importers remain cautious with orders and inventory, high duty rates may continue to pose difficulties for exporting enterprises in maintaining market share in the US market.

Restructuring supply chains and leveraging headroom from FTAS

Faced with escalating tariff barriers, heavy reliance on a traditional market carries substantial short-term risks. To adapt, seafood enterprises need to deploy two strategic solution groups synchronously. On one hand, enterprises must focus on optimizing costs and operational governance by auditing the entire logistics chain, proactively negotiating long-term freight rates, and flexibly applying delivery terms to minimize demurrage and storage risks.

Besides, accelerating deep-processing technology and maximizing by-products such as fish oil, fish meal, and collagen will help increase added value per kilogram of raw material, thereby offsetting increased tariff costs in the US market. On the other hand, enterprises need to accelerate shifts toward FTA markets. While the US market faces headwinds, trade agreement blocs such as the CPTPP—with bright spots like Japan, Canada, and Mexico—or the EVFTA in the EU are opening up vast headroom.

Effectively tapping into these markets not only allows pangasius products to benefit from 0% preferential tariffs, but also helps enterprises diversify risks and maintain operational capacity for domestic processing plants. Proactive adjustments in production strategies, streamlining operations, and flexibly redirecting markets will serve as key factors helping Vietnam's pangasius industry weather the POR21 storm and maintain sustainable growth momentum in the new phase.

Source: Tap chi Doanh nghiep va Hoi nhap