In the first quarter of this year, Vietnam's pangasius exports reached 411 million USD, down 2.5% over the same period in 2023. The pangasius export situation is expected to be better from the third quarter of this year; As a result, export prices will be adjusted to increase by at least 10% compared to the current price.

Value-added pangasius exports to China and the US increased impressively

In the first quarter of this year, frozen fillet products are still the main product of Vietnamese pangasius exports to markets, accounting for 80% of the proportion. By the end of March 2024, exports of frozen pangasius fillets/cuts reached 329 million USD, down 5% over the same period.

Exports of fresh/frozen/dried whole pangasius reached a value of more than 73 million USD, an increase of 8% compared to QI/2023, accounting for 19% of the proportion.

Export turnover of VAT processed pangasius in the first 3 months of this year reached 9 million USD, up 16% over the same period, accounting for 2% proportion.

Notably, VAT pangasius exports to the two largest markets, China & HK and the US, both recorded impressive growth. In the first quarter of 2024, China & HK bought more than 305 thousand USD from Vietnam, an increase of 40% over the same period last year; The US imported 559 thousand USD, up 449% over the same period.

Export pangasius to a number of small but potential markets

In addition to the large markets of Vietnamese pangasius such as China & HK, US, EU,...Thailand, UAE, Germany are small potential markets.

Thailand is one of the world's leading tourist destinations, and continuously tops the ASEAN bloc in Vietnamese pangasius consumption due to commonalities in Asian tastes. In January 2024, Vietnam continued to rank first in the supply of white meat fish (mainly pangasius) to Thailand with more than 3,000 tons and far ahead of other countries in the race to export white meat fish to Thailand.

For the UAE market, there is still room to export pangasius as 90% of the food consumed in this market comes from imports. The UAE's per capita seafood consumption is 28.6 kg/year, higher than the global average. The population in the UAE is increasing, people's income is high and urbanization is fast, tourism is growing, creating millions of jobs, and the economy is growing steadily; These are factors that create favorable conditions for the pangasius export industry to move deeper into this market.

In addition, one of the markets recommended to focus on products with competitive prices to increase export turnover in 2024 is the German market. In 2023, Germany will consume 38 million USD of Vietnamese pangasius, an increase of 31% compared to 2022. Germany mainly imports frozen fillet products with a value of nearly 37 million USD, an increase of 34% compared to 2022, accounting for 97% density.

Export prices are forecast to increase about 10% from the third quarter of this year

Although in the first quarter of this year, pangasius exports showed positive signs, demand in main markets has not recovered strongly. It is forecasted that the situation will improve from the 3rd and 4th quarters, leading to the price trend being adjusted to increase by at least about 10% compared to the current price.

In the context of costs such as labor, gasoline, and logistics showing no signs of cooling down; Having a suitable selling price to meet the needs of each market is necessary for the fishery industry to overcome the difficult period and gradually increase selling prices in the near future of 2024. Enterprises should consider reasonable export prices and gradually adjust them by 5-10% from now until the third and fourth quarters.

The reduced inventory pressure of businesses will be an opportunity to increase production and fulfill new orders at better prices.

Due to the difficult export situation from 2023, both farmers and fish farming businesses will adjust farming output to decrease; Unfavorable weather affects fish farming, so there is a high possibility that pangasius raw materials from now until the end of the year will not be abundant.

Enterprises should also adjust output in accordance with market demand to ensure reasonable supply and demand for the coming seasons; At the same time, inform customers of trends in raw materials that may be lacking at the end of the year to gradually increase selling prices and pay attention to long-term contracts.

Source: VASEP