In January 2026, exports of pangasius and tuna recorded positive growth across several key markets, raising expectations for a stronger outlook for Vietnam’s seafood sector despite ongoing bottlenecks in the U.S. market.

Pangasius exports in January 2026 rise 59% as China market surges

According to data from Vietnam Customs, pangasius exports in January 2026 showed strong growth momentum from the beginning of the year, with total export turnover reaching USD 212 million, up 59% compared with the same period in 2025. The high growth rate reflects sustained import demand across multiple markets, alongside improved consumer spending during the recent festive season compared with early last year.

Market structure continues to show familiar differentiation, with major markets maintaining their leading role while several regions recover more cautiously.

China remained the brightest market for Vietnam’s pangasius sector in the first month of the year. Export turnover to China reached USD 68 million, up 135% year-on-year and accounting for 32% of total exports. The triple-digit growth reflects a sharp surge in consumption demand during the festive season. This year, the Lunar New Year occurred later than usual, concentrating import demand in January at a higher level compared with the same period last year.

In the United States, pangasius exports reached USD 20 million in January 2026, up 13% year-on-year and accounting for 9% of total export turnover. The figure indicates recovering demand but not yet a strong breakthrough. Amid intense competition and persistent price pressure, the previously imposed 20% reciprocal tariff has kept U.S. importers cautious when signing new orders.

Brazil continued to emerge as one of the fastest-growing markets for Vietnamese pangasius. In January 2026, exports to Brazil reached USD 18 million, up 47% year-on-year and accounting for 8.7% of total turnover. The steady growth in this South American market highlights strong expansion potential, particularly as pangasius is increasingly accepted within the competitive whitefish segment.

In terms of regional markets, China and Hong Kong (China) remained the leading destination with USD 72 million in export value, up 129% year-on-year and accounting for 34% of total exports. CPTPP markets reached USD 37 million, up 52%, including Mexico with USD 11 million, the United Kingdom with USD 6 million, and Japan with USD 5 million. ASEAN markets recorded USD 20 million, up 49%, maintaining their role as a stable regional consumption base. Meanwhile, the EU saw more moderate growth with exports of USD 15 million, up 17%, reflecting gradual recovery in premium markets. The Middle East recorded USD 14 million in exports, up 50%, indicating promising expansion signals in the region.

Regarding product structure, Vietnam’s pangasius exports remain heavily concentrated in frozen products classified under HS03. In January 2026, exports in this category reached USD 209 million, accounting for 98.4% of total turnover and increasing 61% year-on-year. Frozen pangasius fillets (HS0304) alone generated USD 175 million in export value, up 62%, remaining the core product. Other frozen products such as whole fish, dried products, and fish maw reached USD 34 million, up 53%. Meanwhile, processed pangasius products under HS16 totaled only USD 3 million, representing 1.6% of exports and remaining nearly unchanged year-on-year. This structure indicates significant room for the industry to increase the share of value-added products in the future.

However, new tariff policies also mean that competing whitefish products such as pollock, cod, and tilapia benefit from similar tariff conditions. As a result, tariff advantages are no longer a decisive competitive factor. In an increasingly competitive environment, pangasius exporters will need to focus more on improving product quality, developing brand value, and increasing the share of value-added processing to strengthen their long-term market position.

Tuna exports grow but U.S. market faces challenges

According to Vietnam Customs data, tuna exports in the first month of 2026 reached more than USD 75 million, up 13% compared with January 2025. Export turnover increased across most key markets including Japan, the European Union, and Russia, while shipments to the United States declined by 6%.

This contrasting trend appears amid ongoing adjustments to U.S. import tariff policies and the enforcement of compliance requirements under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) starting from early 2026.

Among the ten largest export markets for Vietnamese tuna in January 2026, the United States remained the largest with USD 24 million, accounting for 32% of total exports. However, the 6% year-on-year decline suggests that growth momentum in this market is slowing.

In contrast, several large markets recorded strong growth, including Japan with a 95% increase, Germany with 39%, and the Netherlands with 15%. Some markets expanded rapidly from a lower base, such as Egypt with a 129% increase and Chile with 133%, contributing significantly to overall growth.

The trend toward market diversification among Vietnamese exporters has become increasingly evident. This is reflected in export growth across several regional blocs: exports to the European Union rose 25%, CPTPP markets increased 53%, and the Middle East region grew by 35%. This diversification helps reduce reliance on a single market in a volatile global trade environment.

Despite remaining the largest market, tuna exports to the United States face several challenges. The first is compliance with the Marine Mammal Protection Act, which took effect on January 1, 2026. Under the new regulation, fishery products classified as “not comparable” may be banned from import. Meanwhile, products not directly banned but sharing the same country of origin and tariff classification as restricted products must submit a Seafood Import Certificate to demonstrate compliance.

The additional documentation and inspection requirements may increase compliance costs and prolong customs clearance times, particularly during the initial implementation phase.

In addition, U.S. import tariff policy is undergoing rapid changes. In February 2026, international media reported that the United States entered a transitional phase in its reciprocal tariff mechanism following a Supreme Court ruling, temporarily applying tariff measures under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for a period of 150 days. Some reports also suggested that the general tariff level may be adjusted depending on executive decisions.

The final tariff rates applied to specific tuna product categories under different tariff codes, as well as the rates applicable to Vietnam, will depend on official regulatory documents and the classification of each product line. These uncertainties have made U.S. importers more cautious when entering new contracts.

Against this backdrop, tuna exports to the United States are expected to remain volatile due to compliance challenges and tariff uncertainty. Recovery will depend largely on exporters’ ability to standardize supply chain documentation, review tariff classifications, and work closely with import partners to meet certification requirements. If tariffs or enforcement measures intensify, U.S. importers may adjust product portfolios, renegotiate prices, or delay contract commitments.

Meanwhile, in the European Union, growth could continue if exporters expand value-added tuna products, particularly canned tuna, while meeting increasingly stringent sustainability and traceability standards.

The Middle East and North Africa region, including Egypt, still offers considerable growth potential due to strong demand for canned and convenient food products. However, exporters must carefully manage payment risks and logistics volatility to sustain growth momentum.

According to VASEP, Vietnam’s tuna exports are expected to continue growing in the early months of 2026, although the growth rate may remain moderate. Expanding markets and increasing value-added processing will be key factors for maintaining momentum amid continued uncertainty in global trade.

Overall, Vietnam’s seafood exports started 2026 with impressive growth of 30.6% in January, reaching over USD 1.01 billion compared with USD 774 million in the same period of 2025. Among product groups, pangasius exports surged by 59.2%, squid and octopus rose by 40.4%, other fish categories increased by 36.9%, and shrimp exports grew by 22.1%. The overall picture remains positive, reflecting recovering demand across multiple regions after a volatile year in 2025.

Source: Bao Cong Thuong