The international shipping market from the beginning of May 2026 until now is witnessing a strong freight rate hike round on multiple key transportation routes, particularly routes connecting Asia with North America and Europe. For the Vietnamese seafood industry, this is a worrying development because logistics is always one of the largest cost items in the export production cost structure…

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) stated that ocean freight rates began to increase from the beginning of May and surged more strongly in the second half of June. Routes to the US and Canada—Vietnam's important seafood consumer markets, are the places witnessing the most distinct increases.

FREIGHT RATES SURGE STRONGLY ON CORE EXPORT ROUTES

On the transportation route to the US West Coast, the freight rate to Los Angeles port during the period from June 15 to 30 reached around 6,500 USD per full container (FCL), up 27% compared to the first half of June 2026. Compared to the second half of May, this freight level has jumped by up to 90%.

The route to the US East Coast is no exception to the trend. The shipping freight rate to New York in the second half of June reached around 7,900 USD/FCL, up 23% compared to the first half of the month and up about 70% compared to the second half of May.

In the European market, cost pressures are also increasingly intensifying. Freight rates to major ports such as Rotterdam, Hamburg, or Felixstowe stood at around 4,700 USD/FCL in the first half of June and continue to be projected to increase by an additional 1,000 USD in the second half of the month.

Notably, the route to Canada recorded an even stronger increase. Shipping freight rates to Toronto and Montreal currently have surpassed the threshold of 10,000 USD/FCL, up 73% compared to the end of May and more than twice as high as the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, routes to Japan remain relatively stable with freight rates fluctuating from 450 to 770 USD/FCL. This helps enterprises with orders to Japan somewhat relieve cost pressures in the short term.

VASEP assessed that the current rate hike round is the result of resonance from multiple factors.

The first cause originates from geopolitical instabilities in the Middle East. Risks related to the Strait of Hormuz along with prolonged tensions in the Red Sea region prompt many shipping lines to continue selecting the itinerary around the Cape of Good Hope instead of going through the traditional transport route.

"The prolongation of itineraries significantly increases fuel costs, reduces the operational efficiency of fleets, and stretches container turnaround. The consequence is that the actual transport capacity on the market contracts, creating pressure that drives up freight rates," VASEP assessed.

The second cause is that the US market is experiencing a wave of early importing. Many importers and retailers accelerate bringing goods to warehouses to evade risks arising from tariffs, fuel surcharges, or changes in trade policies.

Shipping demand has increased rapidly in a short time, while vessel supply is restricted, causing ocean freight rates to possess a tendency to escalate more strongly than usual.

In addition, shipping lines adjusting schedules, the shortage of empty containers in certain regions, and local congestion at a number of transshipment ports also contribute to increasing pressure on the global logistics chain.

SEAFOOD ENTERPRISES UNDER DOUBLE PRESSURE

VASEP stated that for Vietnamese seafood exporting enterprises, the current rate hike round creates pressure on many dimensions. First and foremost is the pressure regarding costs. Logistics inherently accounts for a significant proportion of seafood export production costs. When freight rates surge by tens of percent in just a few weeks, enterprise profits are eroded substantially, particularly for previously signed contracts with fixed selling prices.

Not only that, the seafood industry also possesses distinct characteristics that make the impacts of ocean transport fluctuations more severe. Commodities such as shrimp, pangasius, tuna, squid, octopus, or deeply processed products all require strict cold preservation throughout the transportation process. Therefore, enterprises not only have to pay higher ocean freight costs, but also have to bear additional cost items related to reefer containers, refrigeration electricity, storage, demurrage, and arising surcharges.

In cases where shipping schedules alter or goods arrive late, enterprises also confront risks of being claimed against by customers, arising trade disputes, or losing business opportunities.

For export shipments to the US, the EU, and Canada—markets with long transit times, this risk becomes even more substantial.

Confronting the complex developments of the shipping market, VASEP recommended that seafood enterprises need to be more proactive in logistics management work.

One of the vital solutions is booking transport spaces early to guarantee having sufficient space on vessels and restrict risks of price hikes at the last minute. Enterprises also need to closely monitor shipping schedules, diversify transport partners, and avoid relying completely on a single shipping line or a single transshipment port.

For new contracts, the factor of freight rate volatility needs to be incorporated into the price negotiation process with customers to share risks. With signed contracts, enterprises should engage in early discussions with partners to unify options for adjusting delivery schedules or allocating incurred costs if necessary.

Particularly, enterprises with orders to the US and Canada in the coming months need to be cautious when committing to fixed delivery times, because the transport market is still fluctuating very rapidly.

According to professional evaluations, freight rate prospects in the coming time will primarily depend on tension developments in the Middle East, the capacity of shipping lines to restore stable schedules, and actual purchasing power in the US market after the early importing phase.

"If geopolitical risks are controlled, freight pressure may ease. However, against the backdrop where the peak transport season arrives early and global transport capacity is still being stretched, freight rate plateaus are unlikely to drop sharply in the short term," VASEP assessed.

For the seafood industry, logistics no longer merely constitutes an ultimate incurred cost item, but is becoming a strategic factor deciding competitiveness. The capacity to forecast the market, control transportation costs, and manage supply chain risks will serve as the “key” helping enterprises maintain orders, protect profits, and elevate positions in the export market during the current highly volatile phase.

Source: VnEconomy