The Vietnamese rice sector is facing massive pressure when production costs rise and output prices decrease. Meanwhile, the primary consuming customer, the Philippines, continuously alters policies to pull down rice prices.

Prices decrease, costs rise, rice farmers face difficulties

Mekong Delta farmers are entering the summer-autumn rice harvest. Currently, rice prices have risen slightly by a few hundred VND/kg compared to the winter-spring crop, but farmers are losing more heavily because costs increased while productivity declined. Mr. Duong Van Sieu, Deputy Director of Thuan Thang Cooperative (Can Tho City), stated: "My family's land and that of cooperative members have just finished harvesting about 10 days ago, with productivity reaching 600 kg/cong. Although this represents a decline of 150 - 200 kg compared to normal years, it is already considered a success, because some households in the region merely reached 400 - 450 kg/cong. The cause is that this year, many people sowed at the exact timing of scorching heat, so the seedlings could not develop; therefore, it took two or three rounds of nutrient spraying for the plants to grow. In addition, this year, fertilizer prices of all types rose by an average of 50 - 70% compared to before."

"During the recent winter-spring crop, many people already lost money when rice prices dropped sharply. Entering the summer-autumn crop, despite prices rising slightly, conversely, production costs also increased and productivity declined, causing many people to fall into a situation where the more they work, the more they lose. Against households renting land, the loss level is estimated to have escalated to around 1 million VND/cong. Therefore, currently, many people temporarily suspend sowing for the subsequent crop. I myself own home land so I still continue, but I am also very worried because usually, harvesting autumn-winter rice falls into the rainy and stormy season, leading to low productivity and quality, hence prices are not high either," Mr. Sieu worriedly said.

A number of enterprises in the Mekong Delta also admitted that this year's summer-autumn crop output is very low due to crop failure; partly due to weather, and partly because fertilizer prices are too high while rice prices are low, so farmers are no longer keen. A report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development confirmed: Counting up to the end of June, the summer-autumn rice sowing area of the entire country merely reached 1.71 million hectares, down 4.3% compared to the previous year's same period. Meanwhile, a number of rice diseases developed strongly compared to the same period, such as leaf blast disease increasing by 24%, panicle blast disease increasing by 50%, bacterial leaf blight increasing by 40%, sheath blight increasing by 18%, and golden apple snails harming rice increasing by 38%. There is no specific report on output volume yet, but when the production area decreases and diseases develop, productivity will also be significantly affected.

While Vietnam's rice production faces extreme difficulties, the export market also confronts multiple challenges. Notably, export prices have maintained low levels stretching from September 2025 until now. The crucial export market of the Philippines continuously alters policies, causing massive fluctuations in prices. Specifically, the Philippines temporarily suspended imports during the final 3 months of 2025, pulling Vietnamese rice prices down to the rock bottom. Thereafter, at the beginning of 2026, this country stepped up imports again and imported over 2.7 million tons over the past 6 months, an increase of up to 20% compared to the same period. At the end of June, the Philippines again announced that in July, they would temporarily suspend granting import permits for 5% broken rice—the core imported rice type. Most recently, at the beginning of the week, this country again considered raising import tariffs by at least 13% against rice from Vietnam and other countries like Thailand, Pakistan, Myanmar, aiming to protect domestic production.

The imposition of safeguard measures by the world's largest rice importing nation has encountered reactions from Pakistan. A representative of the Ministry of Commerce and Investment of Pakistan argued that the Philippines' safeguard measures may violate the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO). In the first 6 months of this year, Pakistan was the 5th largest rice supplier to the Philippines with an output volume of 3,866 tons.

When prices rise, there will no longer be rice to sell

The Philippines is the world's largest rice importer, so every time this country adjusts policies, it causes market fluctuations. According to enterprises, apart from the Philippines, we possess a number of traditional markets such as Africa and China, so basically there is still an outlet. Specifically, each time the Philippines suspends imports, China and African markets compensate, but rice prices do not rise, so both farmers and enterprises make no profit. Mr. Nguyen Van Thanh, Director of Phuoc Thanh IV Production-Trading Co., Ltd (Vinh Long), stated that the Philippines' rice demand in the remaining part of 2026 remains very high, with the US Department of Agriculture projecting up to 5.6 million tons. "But the fact that they constantly close and open, with policies altering month by month, significantly affects our export activities. In just the first 6 months, Vietnam exported over 5 million tons of rice, so during the final phase of the year, we do not face pressure to sell goods or resolve inventories. But low rice prices affecting farmers is a pressure needing to be resolved. With the appearance of El Nino, it is projected that import demand and rice prices will rise at the end of this year. Therefore, Vietnam also needs policies to protect and support rice farmers."

Sharing the exact same perspective, Mr. Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company (Can Tho City), stated that in the long term, there is a need for sustainable development policies for the rice sector, which must link production with the consumption market. It is crucial to support farmers and enterprises to link production, construct raw material zones tied with the market, and develop high-quality, low-emission rice products to penetrate high-end markets.

From a macro perspective, Dr. Dang Kim Son, former Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development (IPSARD), analyzed: Vietnam's food commodity sector, specifically rice, is bearing multi-faceted impacts regarding weather and geopolitics, affecting fertilizer prices. In addition, both production area and productivity decreased, affecting supply. Over the past time, countries have all strengthened national food reserves, so in the immediate future, rice import demands have not risen sharply. However, in the medium and long term, import demands possess the possibility to rise powerfully, and at that moment, we might no longer possess rice to sell. Therefore, right from now, we need preparation for upcoming situations with extreme weather trends.

"At the farmer level, they can hardly do anything because they do not possess infrastructure to reserve. Therefore, the story needs to begin from the enterprise level. However, Vietnamese enterprises are also 'thin-backed'—possessing little capital, therefore demanding support from the State's side related to temporary storage purchasing policies, Government-to-Government (G2G) markets...", said Dr. Dang Kim Son, proposing that from this exact timing, the national reserve agency also needs policies to strengthen purchase reserves in the long term.

“In localities carrying high risks of being affected by natural disasters (scorching heat, floods), the government needs to strengthen reserves to utilize in urgent situations. We must absolutely not be subjective because when export rice prices rise, domestic prices also rise accordingly very rapidly. At that moment, it will impact heavily on low-income citizens,” said Dr. Dang Kim Son, former Director of the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development.

Source: Bao Thanh Nien