Following a phase of booming growth, the Vietnamese durian industry is facing unprecedented pressure when supply increases rapidly and competition becomes day by day fiercer… Multiple experts and exporting enterprises project that durian prices may continue to decrease by 5-10% annually if supply exceeds demand.

Difficult to return to the peak era

On July 14, the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry - Ho Chi Minh City Branch (VCCI-HCM) coordinated with units to organize the 2nd Asian Durian Conference aiming to seek solutions to clear the supply chain, elevate quality, and drive official durian exports to China.

According to data from the Vietnam Customs, in the first 5 months of this year, durian export turnover reached 562.4 million USD. Within this, fresh durians reached 483.1 million USD, up 43.4% compared to the same period; frozen durians reached 77.9 million USD, up 60.3%; and processed durians reached 1.4 million USD, up 16.7%.

China remains Vietnam's largest durian importing market. Notably, the nationwide durian traceability system has been deployed since July 1, marking an important transition in managing growing zone codes, controlling quality, and transparentizing the export chain to large markets.

Mr. Tran Ngoc Liem - Director of VCCI-HCM - stated that within only a few years, durian has become one of the most impressively growing commodity sectors of Vietnamese agriculture. From an output volume of around 366,000 tons in 2015, by 2024 it exceeded 1.5 million tons with an area of nearly 180,000 hectares. Export turnover also rose from more than 277 million USD in 2022 to around 4 billion USD in 2025, turning durian into a core export item of the fruit and vegetable sector.

However, according to Mr. Liem, the too-rapid area expansion speed also dragged along multiple consequences. Supply rose powerfully, at certain points exceeding the market's absorption capacity, exerting downward price pressure across multiple localities.

Meanwhile, the cargo volume satisfying full requirements regarding plant quarantine, growing zone codes, packing facility codes, and specifications under the importing market's demands, particularly China, still remains in shortage. This causes clearance processes at multiple points to be slow, testing costs to escalate, and generates risks of being warned of violations.

Competitive pressure is also day by day larger. Apart from Thailand, multiple nations such as Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia are all expanding market shares in China.

Mr. Liem noted that the Vietnamese durian industry cannot continue to compete using output volume and selling prices but must switch to competing using quality, standards, and brands.

According to Ms. Ngo Tuong Vy - Chairwoman and General Director of Chanh Thu Fruit Import Export Group Joint Stock Company, durian prices may continue to decrease by around 5-10% annually compared to the previous year if supply still exceeds demand.

When supply exceeds demand, then prices will be adjusted. Apart from downward price pressures, enterprises also have to bear multiple additional costs related to transportation, constructing growing zone codes, packing facilities, as well as satisfying increasingly tight regulations of importing markets.

Also according to Ms. Vy, durian quality in a number of zones, particularly in the Central Highlands, was affected over the past two years due to weather and cultivation techniques, dragging down selling prices. Therefore, elevating quality remains the fundamental solution to increase value for the Vietnamese durian fruit.

Wishing to enter China, a new “barrier” must be overcome

Dr. Ngo Xuan Nam - Deputy Director of the Vietnam SPS Office, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development - stated that requirements against exported durians rely on each specific market. Against China specifically, Vietnam has signed protocols regarding the export of fresh durians and frozen durians, therefore enterprises must fully comply with regulations.

“Wishing to export fresh durians to China, possessing growing zone codes and packing facility codes is mandatory, alongside satisfying quarantine and food safety requirements,” Mr. Nam emphasized.

Under regulations, only testing laboratories approved by China Customs can grant Cadmium and Auramine O analysis certificates for the Chinese side to accept upon clearance.

Against frozen durians, enterprises also have to execute regulations of China's Decree 280, entering into force on June 1, 2026, regarding registering imported food manufacturing establishments. Enterprises already granted codes previously will be transitioned into the new management mechanism, while new enterprises need to perfect dossiers to register under regulations.

According to Mr. Nam, this both serves as a challenge and opens up opportunities for enterprises to diversify products. From a single durian fruit, enterprises can develop multiple products such as dried durians, pastries, ice cream, beverages, or blended products aiming to expand markets and elevate export values.

Experts evaluated that against a backdrop of day by day fiercer competition, standardizing raw material zones, elevating quality, transparentizing traceability, and developing deep processing will serve as the key for Vietnamese durians to firmly maintain the billion-dollar export market.

Source: Bao Tien Phong