Tariffs, weakening purchasing power, and escalating costs are forcing many Vietnamese exporters to alter the "way they play". Instead of chasing after every order, they prioritize retaining cash flow, restructuring markets, and shifting products to respond to fluctuations in the second half of 2026.

In an update report on Sao Ta Foods Joint Stock Company (FMC), the Analysis Department of Shinhan Securities pointed out a notable move by FMC in the final two quarters of the year. That is proactively suspending the export (export) of frozen shrimp to the US market until the official results of the anti-dumping duty administrative review period (POR20) are available.

Altering the "way of playing" facing new pressures

According to Shinhan, the cause lies in cash flow pressure. The preliminary anti-dumping (AD) duty rate in the POR20 review period against FMC increased to 10.76%, significantly higher compared to the level of 4.58% in the previous period. Although not yet the final duty rate, the enterprise (enterprise) still has to post bonds of around 25% of the value of each frozen shrimp shipment exported to the US while waiting for the official results.

That causes working capital volumes to be significantly “imprisoned”. Therefore, instead of continuing to chase after revenue, FMC accepts suspending this segment to reduce liquidity pressure and prioritize preserving cash flow.

The decision to temporarily halt exporting frozen shrimp to the US is therefore not merely a reaction to duties. In reality, it is an alteration in the enterprise's governance mindset: accepting the sacrifice of a portion of short-term revenue to preserve cash flow and long-term resilience. This is also an increasingly common equation for many Vietnamese exporters in the second half of this year.

As evaluated by Shinhan, FMC is bearing simultaneous pressure from both markets and US trade policies. On the demand side, purchasing power in the US has not yet recovered distinctly as inflation continues to affect consumer spending. Meanwhile, the enterprise has to face multiple layers of duties at the exact same time.

Apart from the sharply rising preliminary anti-dumping duty, FMC also bears anti-subsidy duties (CVD) at a level of 2.84%. Since February 2026, the US Department of Commerce has deployed the initial administrative review round for this duty, within which FMC serves as one of the two mandatory respondents. The preliminary results are projected to be announced in September 2026.

Alongside that is an additional 10% import tariff rate, applied after the reciprocal tariff expires and still possessing the capacity to be adjusted according to subsequent US decisions.

The three layers of duties not only drive up export costs but also cause this company to bear major pressure regarding working capital and the sentiments of importers while waiting for policies to become clearer.

Instead of continuing to retain every order, FMC selects a different approach: proactively suspending frozen shrimp exports to the US to avoid major bonding pressures. Simultaneously, the company concentrates resources on breaded shrimp—a deeply processed product line that does not fall under the scope of anti-dumping duties.

In parallel with that, FMC increases exports to Japan, where consumer demand is evaluated to be more stable, particularly prior to the Obon festival season. According to Shinhan, revenue from the Japanese market can partially offset the decline in the US.

The above solutions show that the focus of this leading shrimp exporter is no longer retaining every order at all costs, but optimizing cash flow, cutting risks, and maintaining long-term competitive capacity.

Not uniquely the shrimp sector, this alteration is also taking place in many other export sectors. For instance, the textile and garment sector. According to leaders of the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), for the garment sector, the pressure of order shortages in QIII and QIV and price competition will be issues needing to be monitored closely. For the spinning sector, the challenge is maintaining profit margins when yarn demand shows signs of flattening out.

Retaining cash flow to travel the long road

Confronting that situation, recently, Mr. Cao Huu Hieu, General Director of Vinatex, requested the entire system to concentrate on four focus solution groups. Apart from reviewing customer catalogs and maintaining strategic partners, the Group sets the target to protect profit margins through controlling production costs, optimizing raw material purchases, and elevating productivity.

Notably, cash flow governance continues to be viewed by Vinatex as the top priority with solutions to reduce inventory, step up debt recovery, exploit unused assets, and drive up value-added tax refunds aiming to supplement working capital.

From the moves of FMC or Vinatex, it can be seen that the focus of many exporters is shifting from the target of increasing revenue to preserving cash flow and financial health. This constitutes not merely a selection of a defensive nature, but is the way enterprises generate room to respond to fluctuations projected to stretch additionally during the second half of the year.

The focus of many exporters is shifting from the target of increasing revenue to preserving cash flow and financial health.

In reality, market prospects are placing enterprises before a paradox. The latest survey by the Statistics Office demonstrates that 84.7% of enterprises project export orders in QIII/2026 will increase or remain unchanged compared to QII/2026. However, the cost picture is less optimistic when up to 93.2% of enterprises project production costs per product unit will increase or remain unchanged (28.9% increase, 64.3% remain unchanged). This demonstrates that pressure on the profits and cash flows of enterprises remains very large.

It is not surprising that nearly half of the enterprises petition the State to possess solutions to stabilize raw material and energy prices aiming to reduce production cost pressures. Besides, 43.4% of enterprises desire to continue lowering lending interest rates to drop capital costs, while more than 20% propose reducing land rental fees aiming to generate more room for production and business activities.

These petitions also reflect accurately the current situation that the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (Vasep) has multiple times mentioned. According to the Association, against not a few exporting enterprises, capital costs are becoming a factor directly affecting the capacity to maintain orders.

Not only do loan interests remain a burden, Vasep stated that accessing credit is also more difficult when many banks tighten credit limits, elevate lending conditions, and demand collateral assets at higher levels. This makes the equation of retaining cash flow and working capital become even more urgent against a market context containing plenty of uncertainties.

The pressure becomes even larger when the capital equation does not merely originate from credit. Logistics costs are also significantly eroding the profits of exporting enterprises. According to reflections from enterprises, by the beginning of July 2026, logistics costs exceeded 20% of product production costs, higher than the previous level of 17-18% and at certain points “corroded” more than half of gross profits.

When both capital costs and transportation costs concurrently escalate, prioritizing retaining cash flow instead of chasing after every order is becoming a strategic selection for many exporters.

All demonstrate that the new equation for Vietnamese exporters is no longer merely finding additional orders. The larger challenge is maintaining operational efficiency when tariffs, costs, and market risks concurrently increase. The competitive edge now lies in the capacity to retain cash flow, restructure markets, and switch to higher value-added products. In the second half of 2026, retaining cash flow can be even more important than retaining orders.

Source: Vnbusiness